Emerging markets this year have been driven by the winds of a co-ordinated recovery in economic growth, with trade growing strongly, corporate earnings robust and interest rates still low on average across the EM universe. 新兴市场今年受到经济增长同步复苏的推动,贸易增长强劲,企业盈利稳健,整个新兴市场平均利率水平维持在低位。 But whether that environment will propel another year of strong gains for EM assets is another question. The big risks include the potential for a stronger US dollar and a China economic slowdown that could hit global demand for resources, several analysts say. 但是,这样的环境能否推动新兴市场资产实现又一年强劲盈利则是另一个问题。一些分析师表示,主要风险有美元可能走强以及中国经济可能放缓,后者将打击全球资源需求。 “The year 2018 may well be the toughest test yet for EM assets since the 2013 taper tantrum,” says David Hauner, head of economics for eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London. 美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)驻伦敦的东欧、中东和非洲经济主管戴维?豪纳(David Hauner)表示:“对于新兴市场资产而言,2018年很可能是自2013年‘缩减恐慌’(taper tantrum)以来最严峻的考验。” |