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On June 23, the UK will vote on whether to remain in the EU. On November 8, the US will vote on whether to elect Donald Trump as president. These elections have much in common. Both could lead to outcomes that would have seemed inconceivable not long ago. Both pit angry populists against the political establishment. And in both cases, polling suggests that the outcome is in doubt, with prediction markets suggesting a probability of between one in four and one in three of the radical outcome occurring. 6月23日，英国将投票决定是否继续留在欧盟(EU)内。11月8日，美国将投票决定是否选举唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)为总统。这两场投票有很多相似之处。它们可能导致的结果，在不久前看来都还让人觉得不可思议。两者都是愤怒的民粹主义者对上政治建制派。对于两场投票，民调均显示结果难以预料，预测市场显示极端结果出现的可能性在四分之一至三分之一之间。 It is interesting to contrast the way that financial markets are reacting to these uncertainties. The markets are highly sensitive to Brexit news: the pound and the British stock market move with every new opinion poll. Analysis of option pricing suggests that if Britain votes to leave the EU, sterling could easily fall by more than 10 per cent and the British stock market by almost as much. It is widely believed that the uncertainties associated with Brexit are consequential enough to affect the policies of the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks. | 
