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Chance events play a much larger role in life than many people once imagined. 偶然事件对于命运的改变，比许多人以前想象的要大得多。 Most of us have no difficulty recognizing luck when it’s on conspicuous display, as when someone wins the lottery. But randomness often plays out in subtle ways, and it’s easy to construct narratives that portray success as having been inevitable. Those stories are almost invariably misleading, however, a simple fact that has surprising implications for public policy. 当好运以非常引人注目的方式降临，比如有人中了彩票，我们大部分人不难看出来。但这种偶然因素往往以不易察觉的方式起作用，因此人们容易构建出一种逻辑，将成功描绘为必然的。然而，这些成功故事几乎都不可避免地存在误导性，而这样一个简单的事实，会对公共政策产生令人意外的后果。 | 
