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Here’s a little puzzle. You’re offered the chance to participate in two high-risk business ventures. Each costs £11,000. Each will be worth £1m if all goes well. Each has just a 1 per cent chance of success. The mystery is that the ventures have very different expected pay-offs. 这里有个小小的谜题。你得到了参加两项高风险商业投资项目的机会。每个项目会花费你1.1万英镑。如果一切顺利，每个项目将增值为100万英镑。每个项目都只有1%的成功率。令人困惑的是，两个项目的预期未来价值截然不同。 One of these opportunities is a poor investment: it costs £11,000 to get an expected payout of £10,000, which is 1 per cent of a million. Unless you take enormous pleasure in gambling, the venture makes no sense. 其中一个投资项目回报欠佳：你需要花费1.1万英镑才能获得1万英镑的预期未来价值，也就是100万英镑的1%。除非你能从赌博中获得巨大的乐趣，否则这种投资毫无道理。 Strangely, the other opportunity, while still risky, is an excellent bet. With the same cost and the same chance of success, how could that be? 奇怪的是，另一个投资项目尽管也有风险，却是绝佳的赌注。既然投资成本一样，成功率也一样，怎么会这样呢？ Here’s the subtle difference. This attractive alternative project has two stages. The first is a pilot, costing £1,000. The pilot has a 90 per cent chance of failing, which would end the whole project. If the pilot succeeds, scaling up will cost a further £10,000, and there will be a 10 per cent chance of a million-pound payday. | 
