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AFTER months in which it looked all but certain that Scotland would vote “No” to independence, there is now real concern in London at the possibility of Scotland opting for a divorce this Thursday. Polls suggest a closer race than many had predicted, with the “Yes” campaign for Scottish independence even nudging ahead of the lacklustre “No” campaign in some surveys over the past two weeks. But if Scotland does leave the United Kingdom, what of Wales? Would a Scottish “Yes” vote prompt calls from the Welsh to hold their own referendum on independence, precipitating the exit of Wales from the Union too? In fact, although Wales is in a similar position to Scotland, both in terms of history and its present constitutional arrangements, if the polls are to be believed there is almost no appetite for independence in Wales. A YouGov poll in April asked Welsh voters: “Should Wales be an independent country?”, and the answer was a resounding No. Only 12% answered positively, with 74% against (and 13% don’t knows). Curiously, the same poll showed that more Welsh supported independence for Scotland than for their own country. Furthermore, that 12% figure is probably on the high side, as several other surveys have shown support for Welsh independence at more like 5%. Not even all supporters of Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, are in favour of independence. If Scotland votes "No" on September 18th it will certainly get more powers devolved from Westminster to Edinburgh anyway, and the same is bound to happen to Wales. But that is not expected to shift the basic Welsh objection to independence much. | 
