|
Throughout the U.S. recovery we've seen economic data bounce in peaked highs and lows. Real GDP growth since the financial crisis has been as high as nearly 5% year over year and as low as 0%. I expect the sluggish and volatile recovery to continue for years to come. Why? In one word: deleveraging. 美国经济的整个复苏过程中，我们看着经济数据不断地创下新高或者新低。全球金融危机以来，美国实际GDP同比增长率最高接近5%，最低为零。我认为，今后几年美国经济仍将缓慢复苏，震荡前行。原因何在？四个字：去杠杆化。 The U.S. economy has been going through a deleveraging not seen since the Great Depression. Back then, total debt reached 300% of GDP. It continued to drop over the next two decades to 150% of GDP before rising again in the early 1950s. 目前美国经济中的去杠杆化规模为大萧条以来所未见。大萧条期间，美国的总债务是GDP的300%。在接下来的20年里，这个数字曾一路下探到150%，随后在20世纪50年代初才开始再次上升。 The deleveraging of the Great Depression was accomplished thanks to a combination of household austerity, inflation, and government stimulus. Household austerity occurred thanks to elevated savings rates along with pay-downs and defaults on debt during the 1930s while rationing to support the war effort had similar effects in the 1940s. Additionally, breaking away from the gold standard helped raise prices and therefore reduced the real value of America's debt. Lastly, the government spending from various New Deal schemes to the vast mobilization during WWII contributed to keeping total GDP growth positive. | 
