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科学家估计，如果不减少二氧化碳排放，2100年地球平均气温将至少上升4摄氏度，到2200年会上升8摄氏度，无疑是地球“灾难性的噩梦”。 此前有科学家用气候模型分析称，全球气温将受二氧化碳排放影响，上升1.5至5摄氏度。最新研究分析了云层的形成和气候变化之间的关系，认定模型低估了气候的敏感度，将气温上升的下限从1.5调整至3摄氏度，平均增幅达到4摄氏度。本项研究已经在学术杂志《自然》上发表。 According to a December 31 news release from the University of New South Wales, scientists estimate that by 2100, global average temperatures will rise at least 4 degrees Celsius if carbon dioxide emissions are not scaled back. Additionally, researchers say that the continued increase in global average temperatures will result in an additional 4 degrees Celsius by 2200. The findings appear in a recent article in the journal Nature, and may explain one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity: the role of cloud formation, and whether this will have a positive or negative influence on global climate change. “Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation,” said Steven Sherwood, a professor from the University of New South Wales’ Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. “When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3°C to 5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide.” | 
