The stars are aligning for a major bull run in the dollar. As America emerges from the Great Recession in better shape than the rest of the developed world, the US currency is on a roll. 美元有望迎来一波大牛市行情。美国从“大衰退”(Great Recession)中复苏的情况好于其他发达国家,美元也节节攀升。 A wave of upbeat economic figures, the latest being robust February jobs data, have pushed the 10-year benchmark Treasury yield back above 2 per cent and left the S and P 500 stock market index sitting just 1 per cent below a record high. And that is good news for the dollar. 一连串经济数据转好(最新表现是2月就业数据强劲),推动美国基准10年期国债收益率回到2%以上,标准普尔500指数也只比历史最高值低1%。这对美元是利好消息。 On a trade-weighted basis, the world’s foremost reserve currency has marched 4.5 per cent higher over the past five weeks – gaining with relatively risky assets such as equities as US recovery prospects have brightened – while the euro, sterling and yen have all retreated. 随着美国经济复苏前景转好,作为世界主要储备货币的美元与股票等风险资产一同上涨,美元贸易加权汇率过去5周来已累计上升4.5%,与此同时,欧元、英镑和日元全都走低。 “It’s becoming increasingly clear that the US is crawling out of the mud faster than other developed economies,” says Nicholas Pifer, portfolio manager at Columbia Management. |