ROME, Aug. 6-- The outlook for Italy's economy is improving, according to a survey of companies and consumers. But economists say economic indicators do not give much of a clue as to why their optimism is on the rise. Data released Monday by Italy's National Statistics Institute showed that both business and consumer confidence ticked higher in July. It is the first time both indicators improved during the same month in more than a year, and is a welcome dose of good news for an economy that has seen broadly flat growth for the past five economic quarters. Surveys of business and consumer confidence are considered leading indicators, meaning they can start showing changes in the economy -- whether positive or negative -- before they are revealed by other economic indicators. The new data "suggested the Italian economy will improve marginally in the coming months," the institute said in the bulletin released Monday. That could be good news for the government of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, which will have to start negotiations on the country's 2020 budget in September. If improved confidence from businesses and consumers translates into an uptick in economic growth, it could make it easier for the government to keep the budget deficit within limits prescribed by the European Commission. But economists said it is too early to start making assumptions based on the increased optimism. "These business and consumer confidence figures surprised me when they first came out, but they still don't do anything to make me want to change my mind regarding the country's economic prospects," Lucio Poma, a professor of applied economics at the University of Ferrara, told Xinhua. |