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When Nassim Nicholas Taleb was a teenager in Lebanon in 1975, an ethnic civil war broke out. Locals were baffled. They had thought they lived in a “stable paradise”. Once the unforeseen catastrophe began, even Taleb’s grandfather, the deputy prime minister, “did not seem to know what was going to happen any more than his driver, Mikhail”, wrote Taleb in his 2007 classic, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. 1975年，生活在黎巴嫩的纳西姆?尼古拉斯?塔勒布(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)十几岁时，一场民族内战爆发。当地人对此感到困惑。他们原本以为，他们生活在一个“安稳的乐园”里。塔勒布在他2007年的经典著作《黑天鹅：如何应对不可预知的未来》(The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)中写道，当这场谁也没有料到的灾难爆发时，甚至连塔勒布的祖父、当时的副总理“对于未来会发生什么似乎也不比他的司机米哈伊尔(Mikhail)知道的多。” In 1940, when Daniel Kahneman was a Jewish boy living in Paris, the Germans invaded France. Kahneman’s family decided to stay put. Then came the Holocaust. While the family was in hiding, Kahneman’s father could not get treatment for his diabetes, and died. Kahneman was left wondering why humans fail to foresee catastrophe. 1940年，当丹尼尔?卡内曼(Daniel Kahneman)是一个居住在巴黎的犹太小男孩时，德国入侵法国。卡内曼的家人决定留下。接着犹太人大屠杀(Holocaust)来了。全家人躲了起来，但他的父亲因无法得到糖尿病治疗而死去。卡内曼开始思考为什么人类无法预知灾难。 | 
