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Reader question: Please explain “educated guess”, as in: Economic forecasting is at best an educated guess. My comments: Economic forecasting is sophisticated guesswork. It is pretty sophisticated no doubt, but guesswork nonetheless. That means the forecasting can be wrong. You can’t always rely on it. Economic forecasting is like weather forecasting and we all understand that weather forecasting isn’t always correct. Weather forecasters gather and analyze all sorts of data, such as heat waves coming to and fro, rainy clouds forming up here and there, winds blowing hither and thither, so on and so forth. They even have the assistance of satellites these days. Therefore forecasters are able to predict pretty much accurately when and where it’s going to rain and things of that nature. However, no matter how educated are the forecasters and sophisticated their equipment, weather forecasters know this as well as we do, that weather forecast can’t always be right. Nature is capricious and rightfully so. In plainer terms, there are always some unforeseen forces at work – either unforeseen or unnoticed or ignored. Anyways, “educated guess” refers to a conclusion one reaches based on all the knowledge one has on a given subject. In other words, an educated guess is not a wild guess, a verdict reached without hesitation or careful thought. | 
