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“风险”这个词本身就蕴含着风险。即使是语言和文化背景相同的人，对这个词的理解也可能存在差异，而不同国家的人要想就“风险”统一认识更是难上加难。 What a Wall Street trader might define as moderately risky may seem downright insane to a Japanese retail broker; what an oil pipeline engineer in Brazil might characterise as gung-ho may appear overcautious to his revenue-chasing chief executive in London. 在华尔街交易员看来也许只是略有风险的资产，在日本零售经纪人眼中则可能是近乎疯狂的投机。巴西输油管线工程师眼中“头脑发热”的项目，在其追逐利润的驻伦敦首席执行官看来则可能过于保守。 The perception of risk and uncertainty is very different across cultures, says Javier Gimeno, a professor of international risk and strategic management at Insead. In some cultures, there is a very high level of uncertainty avoidance. People avoid discussing things where there is uncertainty, or imitate their competitors just to feel the safety of doing the same thing. In some Mediterranean and Arabic cultures, he has observed a strong sense of fatalism or destiny. You dont want to talk about possible scenarios and possible risks. No one wants to be the person bringing up the risk, which makes the communication of risks difficult. 欧洲工商管理学院(Insead)国际风险与战略管理教授哈维尔吉梅诺(Javier Gimeno)表示：“不同文化对于风险和不确定性的认识存在很大差异。一些文化对不确定性的规避程度极高。人们不愿谈论不确定的事情，或者常常去模仿竞争对手，而这只是为了求得一种从众的安全感。”他发现，地中海和阿拉伯地区的一些文化，“具有很强的宿命色彩。人们不愿谈论可能情形或可能风险，不愿把风险当作话题。这使得外人很难与他们沟通风险问题”。 Since the explosion of BPs Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico two years ago, students of risk have been poring over the causes. An important factor appears to have been a failure in communication between BPs London headquarters and its US operations over the balance between internal control and operational aggression. 自两年前英国石油(BP)马孔多(Macondo)油井爆炸事故发生以来，风险管理领域的研究者们就一直在探讨这起事故发生的原因。BP伦敦总部和美国分公司在平衡内部控制与业务推进方面存在沟通上的失误，这可能是导致事故发生的重要原因之一。 Richard Anderson, head of the Institute of Risk Management, a professional training body in London, says that years before the accident, Lord Browne, then chief executive of BP, told his internal auditors that the philosophy for internal control was we dont like surprises. In the UK, says Mr Anderson, managers took this to mean they should alert their superiors to any looming problems, whereas in the US, some misconstrued Lord Brownes instructions to mean nasty surprises were to be hidden.Language always comes with a set of cultural baggage, says Mr Anderson, who has studied the affair. That was definitely evident in that case. 位于伦敦的职业培训机构“风险管理研究所”(Institute of Risk Management)的所长理查德安德森(Richard Anderson)指出，在这起事故发生的若干年前，时任BP首席执行官的布朗勋爵(Lord Browne)曾对内部审计人员表示，BP的内控理念就是“我们不喜欢意外”。安德森说，在英国，管理者们把这句话理解为应当就任何快要出现的问题向上级发出预警；而在美国，布朗勋爵的这句话被错误理解为要“报喜不报忧”。对此事有过研究的安德森指出：“语言离不开其特定的文化背景，这一点在整件事中非常明显。” Since the financial crisis, banks have been criticised for relying too much on value-at-risk models–which calculate the risk of a banks position based on historic probability of adverse events over time–that failed to account for the severity of what was to occur in 2008. But, says Prof Gimeno, VAR remains a useful tool provided it is only one of several used by organisations. The challenge is that so much risk can escape the scrutiny of even the most sophisticated risk management tools. 自金融危机发生以来，银行业一直因过度倚赖风险价值(VaR)模型而饱受批评。风险价值模型基于消极事件发生的历史概率来计算银行头寸面临的风险。批评人士称，风险价值模型未能充分估计到2008年事件的严重性。但吉梅诺教授认为，风险价值仍是一个有用工具——前提是金融机构在使用这个工具的同时，也要使用其他风险控制工具。当前的挑战在于，即使用上最先进的风险控制工具，也无法确保很大一部分风险不成为“漏网之鱼”。 Oil companies, for example, measure risk in all kinds of ways, from political risk and operational risk to the macroeconomic factors that might lead to fluctuating oil prices. But these measurements are next to useless without open communication and shared assumptions about language. 举例来说，石油公司以多种多样的方式来度量风险，其度量指标涵盖政治风险、运营风险以及可导致油价出现波动的宏观经济因素。但如果公司内部沟通不畅、对于相关语言的理解不一致，上述度量的作用将大打折扣。 An important dimension in risk management is the extent to which there is vertical communication within a company, says Prof Gimeno. Compare a Dutch company – where an employee can talk easily to his superior – to a Japanese or Korean company, where there is a big separation between the ranks. This can lead to communication not being pushed upward. This isnt just company cultures, its national culture. The potential nightmare arises when a company knows less than the individuals within it because of lack of communication between the ranks. 吉梅诺教授称：“风险管理中很重要的一个方面是考察公司内部上下级之间的信息沟通有多么顺畅。在一家荷兰公司里，普通雇员可以很容易地与其上级进行交流。而在日本或韩国企业里，上下级之间等级森严，导致信息很难由下到上传递。这已不再仅仅是公司文化问题，而是属于国家文化范畴。”当公司上下级之间沟通不畅导致管理层掌握的信息少于员工时，严重的风险隐患就产生了。 |
