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第二十二篇： Western airliner manufacturers seem to be tripping over themselves in their eagerness to sign collaborative agreements with Asian partners as a low-cost route to developing new airliners. Their potential Asian partners seem to be tripping over themselves to sign such agreements, as a low-cost route to acquiring new airliner technology. If they are not careful the two sides will end up tripping over each other: the one by selling its birth-right for short-term gain, the other by trying to break into a market which isnt big enough to sustain it. Technology transfer works in a growing market, where the aspirations of the new entrant receiving that technology can be met through expansion. The airliner market is not such a device. Even the most optimistic projections of airliner sales for the next 20 years show that airliner manufacture can only be profitable if a small number of aircraft builders share the available sales. It follows that if new manufacturers come into the market and take sales, their sales must come from substitution, not expansion. Given the complexity of todays airliners, it is unlikely that any new entrant will have both the financial and technical resources to come into the market without the involvement of an established manufacturer. In the short term, such involvement may not be to the exclusive benefit of the new entrant: most of the established manufacturers are searching for ways to reduce costs of manufacture. | 
