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In the last 12 years total employment in the United Statesgrew faster than at any time in the peacetime history of any countryfrom 82to 110 million between 1973 and 1985that is, by a full one third. The entiregrowth, however, was in manufacturing, and especially in noblue-collar jobs This trend is the same in all developedcountries, and is, indeed, even more pronounced in Japan. It is therefore highlyprobable that in 25 years developed countries such as the United States andJapan will employ no larger a proportion of the labor force I n manufacturingthan developed countries now employ in farmingat most, 10 percent. Today theUnited Statesemploys around 18 million people in blue-collar jobs in manufacturingindustries. By 2010, the number is likely to be no more than 12 million. Insome major industries the drop will be even sharper. It is quite unrealistic,for instance, to expect that the American automobile industry will employ morethan one third of its present blue-collar force 25 years hence, even thoughproduction might be 50 percent higher. If a company, an industry or a country does notin the next quarter century sharply increase manufacturing production and atthe same time sharply reduce the blue-collar work force, it cannot hope toremain competitiveor even to remain developed. The attempt to preservesuch bluecollar jobs is actually a prescription for unemployment This is not a conclusion that Americanpoliticians, labor leaders or indeed the general public can easily understandor accept. What confuses the issue even more it that the United Statesis experiencing several separate and different shifts in the manufacturingeconomy. One is the acceleration of the substitution of knowledge and capitalfor manual labor. Where we spoke of mechanization a few decades ago, we nowspeak of robotizationor automation. This is actually more a change interminology than a change in reality. When Henry Ford introduced the assemblyline in 1909, he cut the number of manhours required to produce a motor carby some 80 percent in two or three years far more than anyone expects toresult from even the most complete robotization. But there is no doubt that weare facing a new, sharp acceleration in the replacement of manual workers bymachines that is, by the products of knowledge. | 
