America s debt 美国债务 IN THREE weeks, if there is no political deal, theAmerican government will go into default. Not, onemust pray, on its sovereign debt. But the country will have to stop paying someone: perhapspensioners, or government suppliers, or soldiers. That would be damaging enough at a time ofeconomic fragility. And the longer such a default went on, the greater the risk of provoking agenuine bond crisis would become. 倘若在三个月内没有政治交易,美国政府将出现违约。但希望违约的不是主权债券。无论如何,美国将不得不停止向一些人支付:也许是退休人员,或是政府供应商们,抑或军人们。在经济脆弱不堪的时候,那将具有足够的破坏性。并且,像这样的的违约状态持续越久,引发实际债务危机的风险越大。 There is no good economic reason why this should be happening. Americas net indebtednessis a perfectly affordable 65% of GDP, and throughout the past three years of recession andtepid recovery investors have been more than happy to go on lending to the federalgovernment. The current problems, rather, are political. Under Americas elaborate separationof powers, Congress must authorise any extension of the debt ceiling, which now stands at$14.3 trillion. Back in May the government bumped up against that limit, but various accountingdodges have been used to keep funds flowing. It is now reckoned that these wheezes will beexhausted by August 2nd. |