AMERICAN manufacturers complain that Chinaundervalues its exchange rate. But which one? Thenominal exchange rate is now 6.67 Yuan to thedollar, having strengthened by almost 2% sinceSeptember 5th and by24% since 2005. 美国制造商抱怨中国低估其汇率。但是是哪项汇率?名义汇率现在是1美元兑6.67元,自9月5日以来上升了近2%,自2005年以来上升了24%。 But Chinas real exchange rate with America has strengthened by almost 50% since 2005,according to calculations by The Economist . A real exchange rate takes accountof price movements in each country. If prices rise faster in China than in America, Chinasreal exchange rate goes up, even if its nominal exchange rate stays the same. Thatsbecause higher prices at home make Chinas firms less competitive abroad, just as if theircurrency had gone up. 但是根据《经济学人》的计算,自2005年以来,中国与美国的实际汇率上升了近50%。实际汇率把各国的价格波动也考虑在内。如果中国的物价上涨速度比美国快,即便其名义汇率保持不变,中国的实际汇率也会上升。这是因为国内较高的物价是中国公司在国外的竞争力减弱,正如其货币升值一样。 To calculate the real exchange rate, you need a gauge of prices in each country. Manyeconomists use the consumer-price index . But the CPI contains lots of goods andservices that cannot be traded across borders. Our measure of thereal exchange rate, which we will regularly update, offers a more direct measure ofcompetitiveness by looking instead at unit labour costs: the price of labour per widget.These costs go up when wages rise or productivity falls. In Americanmanufacturing, unit labour costs have risen by less than 4% since the first quarter of 2005,according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics. In Chinese industry they have risen by 25% overthat period, according to our sums. |