The global crash Japanese lessons 全球危机 日本教训 After five years of crisis, the euro area risksJapanese-style economic stagnation; 经过五年危机,欧元的状况正冒着日本当年经济模式停滞的风险; Five years ago, things looked rosy. In the first weekof August 2007 forecasts by investors and majorcentral banks predicted growth rates of 2-3% inAmerica and Europe. But on August 9th 2007everything changed. A French bank, BNP Paribas, announced big losses onsubprime-mortgage investments. The same day, the European Central Bank wasforced to inject 95 billion EURO of emergency liquidity. Thecrisis had begun. 五年前,世界经济比较乐观。2007年8月的第一周,观察人员和主要银行人员预计美国和欧洲会有2-3%的增长率。但在同年8月9日事态改变。法国巴黎银行宣布其在次贷投资商损失惨重。同一年,欧洲央行强行注入950亿欧元作为紧急流动资金。危机已然开始。 During the first year, policymakers looked to Japan as a guide, or rather a warning. Japan sdebt bubble had caused a lost decade, from 1991 to 2001. Analysts commonly drew threelessons. To avoid Japanese-style stagnation it was vital, first, to act fast; second, to cleanup battered balance-sheets; and, third, to provide a bold economic stimulus. If Japan istaken as the yardstick, America and Britain have a mixed record. The euro area looks as if itmight be turning Japanese. |