Global house prices 全球房价 HOUSING markets are prone to boom-and-bust cycles, with prices overshooting thenundershooting sustainable levels. To work out whether they are over- or undervalued, TheEconomist uses two gauges. One assesses affordability by comparing prices with disposableincome. The other considers the case for investing in housing by comparing prices with rents.If these ratios are higher than their historical averages property isovervalued; if they are lower it is undervalued. On this basis, Canadas house prices arebubbly whereas Japans are undeservedly flat . 房地产市场容易在可持续水平上下波动从而形成涨跌周期。为了衡量房价被高估还是低估,经济学人采用了两种测量方法。第一种是比较可支配收入与房价水平,第二种是考虑租金与房价的关系。如果这些比率高于自70年代中期以来的历史平均值,那么房地产市场就被高估了。如果低于历史水平,那么房地产市场被低估了。基于此,加拿大的房价有泡沫,而日本的房价则出奇的稳定。 Americas formerly stricken market has rebounded: house prices have risen by 12.1% overthe past year. But the recovery still appears to be sound, since prices remain undervaluedagainst income. A sharp rise in mortgage rates since May, on signs that the Federal Reservewill shortly slow the pace of asset purchases, may in any case temper the boom. |