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油价上涨对全球经济的影响 ①Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? ②[1]Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $ 26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. ③This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979 1980, when they also almost tripled. ④Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. ⑤So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time? ①The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. ②Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term. ①[5]Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. ②[2]In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. ③In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past. ①Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. ②Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. ③Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. ④For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. ⑤[3]The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $ 22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25 0.5% of GDP. ⑥That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. ⑦On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies to which heavy industry has shifted have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed. | 
