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Part A Passage 1 For all his vaunted talents, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has never had much of a reputation as an economic forecaster. In fact, he shies away from making the precise to-the-decimal-point predictions that many other economists thrive on. Instead, he owes his success as a monetary policymaker to his ability to sniff out threats to the economy and manipulate interest rates to dampen the dangers he perceives. Now, those instincts are being put to the test. Many Fed watchers -- and some policymakers inside the central bank itself -- are beginning to wonder whether Greenspan has lost his touch. Despite rising risks to the economy from a swooning stock market and soaring oil prices that could hamper growth, the Greenspan-led Federal Open Market Committee opted to leave interest rates unchanged on Sept. 24. But in a rare dissent, two of the Feds 12 policymakers broke ranks and voted for a cut in rates -- Dallas Fed President Robert D. McTeer Jr. and central bank Governor Edward M. Gramlich. The move by McTeer, the Feds self-styled Lonesome Dove, was no surprise. But Gramlichs was. This was the first time that the monetary moderate had voted against the chairman since joining the Feds board in 1997. And it was the first public dissent by a governor since 1995. Despite the split vote, its too soon to count the maestro of monetary policy out. Greenspan had good reasons for not cutting interest rates now. And by acknowledging in the statement issued after the meeting that the economy does indeed face risks, Greenspan left the door wide open to a rate reduction in the future. Indeed, former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley thinks chances are good that the central bank might even cut rates before its next scheduled meeting on Nov. 6, the day after congressional elections. | 
