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107. The following appeared in a memorandum written by the assistant manager of a store that sells gourmet food items from various countries. A local wine store made an interesting discovery last month: it sold more French than Italian wine on days when it played recordings of French accordion music, but it sold more Italian than French wine on days when Italian songs were played. Therefore, I recommend that we put food specialties from one particular country on sale for a week at a time and play only music from that country while the sale is going on. By this means we will increase our profits in the same way that the wine store did, and we will be able to predict more precisely what items we should stock at any given time. Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc. As a means of increasing profits and more accurately predicting what items should be stocked, the assistant manager of a gourmet food store proposes that only music from a particular country be played during the period food items from that country are on sale. The basis for this proposal is the discovery by a wine store that sales of wine from a country increased when music from that country was played. The managers proposal is questionable for several reasons. First, the manager assumes that the sequence of sales experienced by the wine store reflects a general causal pattern. However, there is little evidence to support this assumption. While perhaps indicative of such a pattern, the wine store sales merely demonstrate a correlation between sales of wine from a country and the playing of music from that country. To establish a causal connection between these events it would be necessary to examine and eliminate other possible factors that might account for this phenomenon. In any case, it is highly questionable whether evidence gathered over a one-month period is sufficient to establish the general claim in question. | 
