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89. This advertisement for How to Write a Screenplay... concludes that a writer is more likely to be successful by writing original screenplays than by writing books. The ads reasoning is based on two claims: the average film tends to be more profitable than even best-selling books, and film producers are more likely to make movies based on original screenplays than on books because in recent years the films that have sold the most tickets have usually been based on original screenplays. I find the ad unconvincing, on three grounds. First, the mere fact that ticket sales in recent years for screenplay-based movies have exceeded those for book-based movies is insufficient evidence to conclude that writing screenplays now provides greater financial opportunity for writers. Ticket-sale statistics from only a few recent years are not necessarily a good indicator of future trends. It is possible that fees paid by movie studios for screenplays might decrease in the future relative to those for book rights. Moreover. the argument is based on number of ticket sales, not on movie-studio profits or writers Sees. It is possible that studio profits and writer fees have actually been greater recently for book-based movies than | 
