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13. The following appeared as part of a campaign to sell advertising time on a local radio station to local businesses. The Cumquat Cafe began advertising on our local radio station this year and was delighted to see its business increase by 10 percent over last years totals. Their success shows you how you can use radio advertising to make your business more profitable. 将本地电台的广告时间卖给本地企业的计划： Cumquat咖啡店今年开始在我们电台做广告，并很高兴的看到它的业务比去年全年增长10%。他们的成功向您展示了您如何能够利用电台广告使您的企业获利更多。 1， 没有排除他因For example, the Cumquat might have changed owners or chefs; it might have launched a coupon ad campaign in the local print media; or it might have changed or updated the menu. 2， 同时出现不代表有因果关系 3， 错误类比。We must also assume that what is true of the Cumquat will likewise be true of most other businesses. In an attempt to sell radio advertising time, this ad claims that radio advertising will make businesses more profitable. The evidence cited is a ten percent increase in business that the Cumquat Cafe has experienced in the year during which it advertised on the local radio station. This argument is unconvincing because two questionable assumptions must be made for the stated evidence to support the authors conclusion. | 
