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[时事] 金砖国家的微观缺陷

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A year ago, Brazil, Russia, India and China were the darlings of the world economy. Today, Brazil is barely growing, Russia is struggling and India and China are on course for their lowest growth in a decade. Although they are as different as they are similar, all four of the original Bric countries have contrived to stumble simultaneously. The lessons are that microeconomics can matter as much as macroeconomics – and that belonging to a prestigious economic club is hazardous.

一年前,巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国还是世界经济的宠儿。如今,巴西经济增长近乎停滞,俄罗斯苦苦挣扎,印度和中国也将迎来十年最低的增长率。尽管它们相互之间的差异之大一点都不亚于它们的相似程度,但“金砖国家(Brics)中的四个原始成员都同时绊了跟头。从中可以得到两点教训:微观经济与宏观经济同样重要,以及加入一个显赫的经济俱乐部是有危险的。

The Brics, and emerging economies generally, deserve enormous credit for their macroeconomic management. In the 1970s and 1980s, one in two emerging and developing economies had double-digit inflation. Today, fewer than one in five do. As recently as the 1990s, the median emerging economy had public debt to gross domestic product of more than 65 per cent. In the past two years, the median has been below 40 per cent. Add in bulging foreign exchange reserves, debt denominated in domestic currency rather than dollars and (with China the big exception) flexible exchange rates, and the hype surrounding emerging economies seems almost reasonable.

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