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China will be the world’s largest economy by 2030 but the US will still remain “first among equals in the international system, according to a new US government intelligence assessment of global trends. 美国政府对全球趋势的一项新的情报评估显示，2030年中国将成为世界最大经济体，但美国将依然是国际体系中“首屈一指的国家。 The report predicts that Europe, Japan and Russia will continue to experience relative decline and that Asia will come to dwarf the rest of the world in terms of its economic and military power. 该报告预测，欧洲、日本、俄罗斯将继续处于相对衰落中，亚洲将在经济和军事实力上超越世界其他地区。 Among other conclusions, the wave of Islamist terrorism is likely to have ended by 2030, the survey predicts, the US will be energy-independent and could be a significant exporter of energy, and advances in manufacturing technologies could reduce the need for outsourcing. The study also warns that future conflicts in Asia and the Middle East could involve a “nuclear element. 调查预计：2030年之前，伊斯兰恐怖主义之潮很可能会终结；美国将实现能源独立，并可能成为一个重要的能源出口国；制造技术的进步将减少外包需求。这项研究还警示，未来亚洲和中东的冲突可能会涉及“核武器因素。 “With the rapid rise of other countries, the ‘unipolar moment’ is over and ‘Pax Americana’ – the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945 – is fast winding down, the report states. In terms of economic size, technology and military spending, Asian power will exceed North America and Europe combined by 2030. However, the US will retain its central role because it will remain the only country able to mobilise coalitions to address global challenges. | 
