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问题：供应链中的牛鞭效应用英语解释牛鞭效应的一句或一段话.想要解释原理的一段话，不是介绍名字的！
答案：↓↓↓ 曹艳秋的回答： 网友采纳 TheBullwhipEffect(orWhiplashEffect)isanobservedphenomenoninforecast-drivendistributionchannels.TheconcepthasitsrootsinJForrester'sIndustrialDynamics(1961)andthusitisalsoknownastheForresterEffect.SincetheoscillatingdemandmagnificationupstreamasupplychainremindssomeoneofacrackingwhipitbecamefamousastheBullwhipEffect. Becausecustomerdemandisrarelyperfectlystable,businessesmustforecastdemandtoproperlypositioninventoryandotherresources.Forecastsarebasedonstatistics,andtheyarerarelyperfectlyaccurate.Becauseforecasterrorsareagiven,companiesoftencarryaninventorybuffercalled"safetystock".Movingupthesupplychainfromend-consumertorawmaterialssupplier,eachsupplychainparticipanthasgreaterobservedvariationindemandandthusgreaterneedforsafetystock.Inperiodsofrisingdemand,down-streamparticipantsincreaseorders.Inperiodsoffallingdemand,ordersfallorstoptoreduceinventory.Theeffectisthatvariationsareamplifiedasonemovesupstreaminthesupplychain(furtherfromthecustomer).ThissequenceofeventsiswellsimulatedbytheBeerDistributionGamewhichwasdevelopedbytheMITSloanSchoolofManagementinthe1960s. Thecausescanfurtherbedividedintobehavioralandoperationalcauses: Behaviouralcauses misuseofbase-stockpolicies misperceptionsoffeedbackandtimedelays panicorderingreactionsafterunmetdemand perceivedriskofotherplayers'boundedrationality Operationalcauses dependentdemandprocessing ForecastErrors adjustmentofinventorycontrolparameterswitheachdemandobservation LeadtimeVariability(forecasterrorduringreplenishmentleadtime) lot-sizing/ordersynchronization consolidationofdemands transactionmotive quantitydiscount tradepromotionandforwardbuying anticipationofshortages allocationruleofsuppliers shortagegaming LeanandJITstylemanagementofinventoriesandachaseproductionstrategy | 
