为什么新冠疫情是“灰犀牛”，而不是“黑天鹅”？
<p>随着新冠疫情在全球范围内蔓延，许多报道都将<span word="COVID">COVID</span>-19大流行描述为“黑天鹅”但有语言学家指出，这是一种误用，对这场危机的恰当比喻应为“灰犀牛”黑天鹅和灰犀牛分别指什么，又有什么区别呢？今天我们就来学一学。</p><p>黑天鹅</p><p><span word="Black">Black</span> <span word="swan">swan</span></p><p>▌比喻一种极其罕见的、未曾预见的、造成巨大影响的事件</p><p><span word="A">A</span> <span word="metaphor">metaphor</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="extremely">extremely</span> <span word="rare">rare</span> <span word="event">event</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="unforeseen">unforeseen</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="enormous">enormous</span> <span word="impact">impact</span></p><p> <span word="Photo">Photo</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="Yuting">Yuting</span> <span word="Liu">Liu</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="Unsplash">Unsplash</span></p><p>“黑天鹅”这一术语是美国经济学家纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布在2001年创造的。</p><p>早在公元2世纪，古罗马诗人朱文诺"<span word="a">a</span> <span word="rare">rare</span> <span word="bird">bird</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="lands">lands</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="very">very</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="like">like</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="black">black</span> <span word="swan">swan</span>"</p><p>在发现澳大利亚的黑天鹅之前，欧洲人认为天鹅都是白色的。“黑天鹅”曾经是欧洲人言谈与写作中的惯用语，用来指不可能存在的事物，但这个不可动摇的信念随着第一只黑天鹅的出现而崩溃。</p><p>受此启发，塔勒布将“黑天鹅”一词应用于9·11袭击、美国的次级贷危机和互联网的发展等离奇事件。</p><p><span word="It">It</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="coined">coined</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="economist">economist</span> <span word="Nassim">Nassim</span> <span word="Nicholas">Nicholas</span> <span word="Taleb">Taleb</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2001 — <span word="inspired">inspired</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="a">a</span> 2<span word="nd">nd</span>-<span word="century">century</span> <span word="Roman">Roman</span> <span word="poet">poet</span> <span word="who">who</span> <span word="presumed">presumed</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="birds">birds</span> <span word="didn">didn</span>’<span word="t">t</span> <span word="exist">exist</span> — <span word="and">and</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="applied">applied</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="disparate">disparate</span> <span word="outliers">outliers</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="the">the</span> 9/11 <span word="attacks">attacks</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="development">development</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="internet">internet</span>.</p>
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