2018年新兴市场面临严峻考验
<p><span word="Emerging">Emerging</span> <span word="markets">markets</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="year">year</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="driven">driven</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="winds">winds</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="co">co</span>-<span word="ordinated">ordinated</span> <span word="recovery">recovery</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="growth">growth</span>, <span word="with">with</span> <span word="trade">trade</span> <span word="growing">growing</span> <span word="strongly">strongly</span>, <span word="corporate">corporate</span> <span word="earnings">earnings</span> <span word="robust">robust</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="interest">interest</span> <span word="rates">rates</span> <span word="still">still</span> <span word="low">low</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="average">average</span> <span word="across">across</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="EM">EM</span> <span word="universe">universe</span>.</p><p>新兴市场今年受到经济增长同步复苏的推动，贸易增长强劲，企业盈利稳健，整个新兴市场平均利率水平维持在低位。</p><p><span word="But">But</span> <span word="whether">whether</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="environment">environment</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="propel">propel</span> <span word="another">another</span> <span word="year">year</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="strong">strong</span> <span word="gains">gains</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="EM">EM</span> <span word="assets">assets</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="another">another</span> <span word="question">question</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="big">big</span> <span word="risks">risks</span> <span word="include">include</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="potential">potential</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="stronger">stronger</span> <span word="US">US</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="slowdown">slowdown</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="hit">hit</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="demand">demand</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="resources">resources</span>, <span word="several">several</span> <span word="analysts">analysts</span> <span word="say">say</span>.</p><p>但是，这样的环境能否推动新兴市场资产实现又一年强劲盈利则是另一个问题。一些分析师表示，主要风险有美元可能走强以及中国经济可能放缓，后者将打击全球资源需求。</p><p>“<span word="The">The</span> <span word="year">year</span> 2018 <span word="may">may</span> <span word="well">well</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="toughest">toughest</span> <span word="test">test</span> <span word="yet">yet</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="EM">EM</span> <span word="assets">assets</span> <span word="since">since</span> <span word="the">the</span> 2013 <span word="taper">taper</span> <span word="tantrum">tantrum</span>,” <span word="says">says</span> <span word="David">David</span> <span word="Hauner">Hauner</span>, <span word="head">head</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="economics">economics</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="eastern">eastern</span> <span word="Europe">Europe</span>, <span word="Middle">Middle</span> <span word="East">East</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Africa">Africa</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Bank">Bank</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="America">America</span> <span word="Merrill">Merrill</span> <span word="Lynch">Lynch</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="London">London</span>.</p><p>美银美林(<span word="Bank">Bank</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="America">America</span> <span word="Merrill">Merrill</span> <span word="Lynch">Lynch</span>)驻伦敦的东欧、中东和非洲经济主管戴维?豪纳(<span word="David">David</span> <span word="Hauner">Hauner</span>)表示：“对于新兴市场资产而言，2018年很可能是自2013年‘缩减恐慌’(<span word="taper">taper</span> <span word="tantrum">tantrum</span>)以来最严峻的考验。”</p>
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