贸易战会给中国带来多大伤害？
<p>当前的贸易战对中国经济有什么影响呢？有分析表明，尽管它给经济带来的直接影响肯定是负面的，但实际上却很小，还不到<span word="GDP">GDP</span>的0.5%。然而，即使对中国来说直接的经济影响也许是可控的，但贸易战本身却有可能损害中美之间的长期关系，包括影响涵盖教育、旅游的服务贸易在未来的增长速度。美国在服务领域一直拥有庞大的、不断增长的顺差，中方估计这一顺差在2017年达到540亿美元，美方的估计是400亿美元。贸易战最大的影响，也许将远远超出眼下直接受到影响的货物。</p><p><span word="What">What</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="impact">impact</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="current">current</span> <span word="trade">trade</span> <span word="war">war</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Chinese">Chinese</span> <span word="economy">economy</span>? <span word="An">An</span> <span word="analysis">analysis</span> <span word="shows">shows</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="while">while</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="immediate">immediate</span> <span word="direct">direct</span> <span word="impact">impact</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="certainly">certainly</span> <span word="negative">negative</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="small">small</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="real">real</span> <span word="terms">terms</span>, <span word="affecting">affecting</span> <span word="less">less</span> <span word="than">than</span> 0.5% <span word="of">of</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span>. <span word="However">However</span>, <span word="while">while</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="immediate">immediate</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="impact">impact</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="manageable">manageable</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="China">China</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="trade">trade</span> <span word="war">war</span> <span word="itself">itself</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="do">do</span> <span word="damage">damage</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="longer">longer</span>-<span word="term">term</span> <span word="relations">relations</span> <span word="between">between</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="United">United</span> <span word="States">States</span>, <span word="including">including</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="affecting">affecting</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="future">future</span> <span word="rate">rate</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="growth">growth</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="trade">trade</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="services">services</span>, <span word="including">including</span> <span word="education">education</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="tourism">tourism</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="U">U</span>.<span word="S">S</span>. <span word="has">has</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="persistent">persistent</span>, <span word="large">large</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="growing">growing</span> <span word="surplus">surplus</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="area">area</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="estimated">estimated</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> $54 <span word="billion">billion</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="U">U</span>.<span word="S">S</span>. <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> $40 <span word="billion">billion</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2017. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="biggest">biggest</span> <span word="impact">impact</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="trade">trade</span> <span word="war">war</span> <span word="might">might</span> <span word="go">go</span> <span word="beyond">beyond</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="immediate">immediate</span> <span word="goods">goods</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="affected">affected</span> <span word="now">now</span>.</p>
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