特朗普当选将威胁美国和世界经济
<p><span word="On">On</span> <span word="June">June</span> 23, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="UK">UK</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="vote">vote</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="whether">whether</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="remain">remain</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="EU">EU</span>. <span word="On">On</span> <span word="November">November</span> 8, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="US">US</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="vote">vote</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="whether">whether</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="elect">elect</span> <span word="Donald">Donald</span> <span word="Trump">Trump</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="president">president</span>. <span word="These">These</span> <span word="elections">elections</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="common">common</span>. <span word="Both">Both</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="lead">lead</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="outcomes">outcomes</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="seemed">seemed</span> <span word="inconceivable">inconceivable</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="long">long</span> <span word="ago">ago</span>. <span word="Both">Both</span> <span word="pit">pit</span> <span word="angry">angry</span> <span word="populists">populists</span> <span word="against">against</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="political">political</span> <span word="establishment">establishment</span>. <span word="And">And</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="both">both</span> <span word="cases">cases</span>, <span word="polling">polling</span> <span word="suggests">suggests</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="outcome">outcome</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="doubt">doubt</span>, <span word="with">with</span> <span word="prediction">prediction</span> <span word="markets">markets</span> <span word="suggesting">suggesting</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="probability">probability</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="between">between</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="four">four</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="three">three</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="radical">radical</span> <span word="outcome">outcome</span> <span word="occurring">occurring</span>.</p><p>6月23日，英国将投票决定是否继续留在欧盟(<span word="EU">EU</span>)内。11月8日，美国将投票决定是否选举唐纳德•特朗普(<span word="Donald">Donald</span> <span word="Trump">Trump</span>)为总统。这两场投票有很多相似之处。它们可能导致的结果，在不久前看来都还让人觉得不可思议。两者都是愤怒的民粹主义者对上政治建制派。对于两场投票，民调均显示结果难以预料，预测市场显示极端结果出现的可能性在四分之一至三分之一之间。</p><p><span word="It">It</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="interesting">interesting</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="contrast">contrast</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="way">way</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="markets">markets</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="reacting">reacting</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="these">these</span> <span word="uncertainties">uncertainties</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="markets">markets</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="highly">highly</span> <span word="sensitive">sensitive</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="Brexit">Brexit</span> <span word="news">news</span>: <span word="the">the</span> <span word="pound">pound</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="British">British</span> <span word="stock">stock</span> <span word="market">market</span> <span word="move">move</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="every">every</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="opinion">opinion</span> <span word="poll">poll</span>. <span word="Analysis">Analysis</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="option">option</span> <span word="pricing">pricing</span> <span word="suggests">suggests</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="if">if</span> <span word="Britain">Britain</span> <span word="votes">votes</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="leave">leave</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="EU">EU</span>, <span word="sterling">sterling</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="easily">easily</span> <span word="fall">fall</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="than">than</span> 10 <span word="per">per</span> <span word="cent">cent</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="British">British</span> <span word="stock">stock</span> <span word="market">market</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="much">much</span>. <span word="It">It</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="widely">widely</span> <span word="believed">believed</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="uncertainties">uncertainties</span> <span word="associated">associated</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="Brexit">Brexit</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="consequential">consequential</span> <span word="enough">enough</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="affect">affect</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="policies">policies</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="US">US</span> <span word="Federal">Federal</span> <span word="Reserve">Reserve</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="major">major</span> <span word="central">central</span> <span word="banks">banks</span>.</p>
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