别再否认了 成功当然跟运气有关
<p><span word="Chance">Chance</span> <span word="events">events</span> <span word="play">play</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="larger">larger</span> <span word="role">role</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="life">life</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="people">people</span> <span word="once">once</span> <span word="imagined">imagined</span>.</p><p>偶然事件对于命运的改变，比许多人以前想象的要大得多。</p><p><span word="Most">Most</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="us">us</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="no">no</span> <span word="difficulty">difficulty</span> <span word="recognizing">recognizing</span> <span word="luck">luck</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="it">it</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="conspicuous">conspicuous</span> <span word="display">display</span>, <span word="as">as</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="someone">someone</span> <span word="wins">wins</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="lottery">lottery</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="randomness">randomness</span> <span word="often">often</span> <span word="plays">plays</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="subtle">subtle</span> <span word="ways">ways</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="it">it</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="easy">easy</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="construct">construct</span> <span word="narratives">narratives</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="portray">portray</span> <span word="success">success</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="having">having</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="inevitable">inevitable</span>. <span word="Those">Those</span> <span word="stories">stories</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> <span word="invariably">invariably</span> <span word="misleading">misleading</span>, <span word="however">however</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="simple">simple</span> <span word="fact">fact</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="surprising">surprising</span> <span word="implications">implications</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="public">public</span> <span word="policy">policy</span>.</p><p>当好运以非常引人注目的方式降临，比如有人中了彩票，我们大部分人不难看出来。但这种偶然因素往往以不易察觉的方式起作用，因此人们容易构建出一种逻辑，将成功描绘为必然的。然而，这些成功故事几乎都不可避免地存在误导性，而这样一个简单的事实，会对公共政策产生令人意外的后果。</p>
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