试验教给我们的经验:妙处无所不在
<p><span word="Here">Here</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="little">little</span> <span word="puzzle">puzzle</span>. <span word="You">You</span>’<span word="re">re</span> <span word="offered">offered</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="chance">chance</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="participate">participate</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="high">high</span>-<span word="risk">risk</span> <span word="business">business</span> <span word="ventures">ventures</span>. <span word="Each">Each</span> <span word="costs">costs</span> £11,000. <span word="Each">Each</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="worth">worth</span> £1<span word="m">m</span> <span word="if">if</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="goes">goes</span> <span word="well">well</span>. <span word="Each">Each</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="just">just</span> <span word="a">a</span> 1 <span word="per">per</span> <span word="cent">cent</span> <span word="chance">chance</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="success">success</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="mystery">mystery</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="ventures">ventures</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="very">very</span> <span word="different">different</span> <span word="expected">expected</span> <span word="pay">pay</span>-<span word="offs">offs</span>.</p><p>这里有个小小的谜题。你得到了参加两项高风险商业投资项目的机会。每个项目会花费你1.1万英镑。如果一切顺利，每个项目将增值为100万英镑。每个项目都只有1%的成功率。令人困惑的是，两个项目的预期未来价值截然不同。</p><p><span word="One">One</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="these">these</span> <span word="opportunities">opportunities</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="poor">poor</span> <span word="investment">investment</span>: <span word="it">it</span> <span word="costs">costs</span> £11,000 <span word="to">to</span> <span word="get">get</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="expected">expected</span> <span word="payout">payout</span> <span word="of">of</span> £10,000, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="is">is</span> 1 <span word="per">per</span> <span word="cent">cent</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="million">million</span>. <span word="Unless">Unless</span> <span word="you">you</span> <span word="take">take</span> <span word="enormous">enormous</span> <span word="pleasure">pleasure</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="gambling">gambling</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="venture">venture</span> <span word="makes">makes</span> <span word="no">no</span> <span word="sense">sense</span>.</p><p>其中一个投资项目回报欠佳：你需要花费1.1万英镑才能获得1万英镑的预期未来价值，也就是100万英镑的1%。除非你能从赌博中获得巨大的乐趣，否则这种投资毫无道理。</p><p><span word="Strangely">Strangely</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="opportunity">opportunity</span>, <span word="while">while</span> <span word="still">still</span> <span word="risky">risky</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="excellent">excellent</span> <span word="bet">bet</span>. <span word="With">With</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="same">same</span> <span word="cost">cost</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="same">same</span> <span word="chance">chance</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="success">success</span>, <span word="how">how</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="be">be</span>?</p><p>奇怪的是，另一个投资项目尽管也有风险，却是绝佳的赌注。既然投资成本一样，成功率也一样，怎么会这样呢？</p><p><span word="Here">Here</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="subtle">subtle</span> <span word="difference">difference</span>. <span word="This">This</span> <span word="attractive">attractive</span> <span word="alternative">alternative</span> <span word="project">project</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="stages">stages</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="first">first</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="pilot">pilot</span>, <span word="costing">costing</span> £1,000. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="pilot">pilot</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="a">a</span> 90 <span word="per">per</span> <span word="cent">cent</span> <span word="chance">chance</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="failing">failing</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="end">end</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="whole">whole</span> <span word="project">project</span>. <span word="If">If</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="pilot">pilot</span> <span word="succeeds">succeeds</span>, <span word="scaling">scaling</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="cost">cost</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="further">further</span> £10,000, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="there">there</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="a">a</span> 10 <span word="per">per</span> <span word="cent">cent</span> <span word="chance">chance</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="million">million</span>-<span word="pound">pound</span> <span word="payday">payday</span>.</p>
页:
[1]