抗击债务 美国为什么比欧洲做得好
<p><span word="Throughout">Throughout</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="U">U</span>.<span word="S">S</span>. <span word="recovery">recovery</span> <span word="we">we</span>'<span word="ve">ve</span> <span word="seen">seen</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="data">data</span> <span word="bounce">bounce</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="peaked">peaked</span> <span word="highs">highs</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="lows">lows</span>. <span word="Real">Real</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span> <span word="growth">growth</span> <span word="since">since</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="crisis">crisis</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="high">high</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="nearly">nearly</span> 5% <span word="year">year</span> <span word="over">over</span> <span word="year">year</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="low">low</span> <span word="as">as</span> 0%. <span word="I">I</span> <span word="expect">expect</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="sluggish">sluggish</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="volatile">volatile</span> <span word="recovery">recovery</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="continue">continue</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="come">come</span>. <span word="Why">Why</span>? <span word="In">In</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="word">word</span>: <span word="deleveraging">deleveraging</span>.</p><p>美国经济的整个复苏过程中，我们看着经济数据不断地创下新高或者新低。全球金融危机以来，美国实际<span word="GDP">GDP</span>同比增长率最高接近5%，最低为零。我认为，今后几年美国经济仍将缓慢复苏，震荡前行。原因何在？四个字：去杠杆化。</p><p><span word="The">The</span> <span word="U">U</span>.<span word="S">S</span>. <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="going">going</span> <span word="through">through</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="deleveraging">deleveraging</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="seen">seen</span> <span word="since">since</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Great">Great</span> <span word="Depression">Depression</span>. <span word="Back">Back</span> <span word="then">then</span>, <span word="total">total</span> <span word="debt">debt</span> <span word="reached">reached</span> 300% <span word="of">of</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span>. <span word="It">It</span> <span word="continued">continued</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="drop">drop</span> <span word="over">over</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="next">next</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="decades">decades</span> <span word="to">to</span> 150% <span word="of">of</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span> <span word="before">before</span> <span word="rising">rising</span> <span word="again">again</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="early">early</span> 1950<span word="s">s</span>.</p><p>目前美国经济中的去杠杆化规模为大萧条以来所未见。大萧条期间，美国的总债务是<span word="GDP">GDP</span>的300%。在接下来的20年里，这个数字曾一路下探到150%，随后在20世纪50年代初才开始再次上升。</p><p><span word="The">The</span> <span word="deleveraging">deleveraging</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Great">Great</span> <span word="Depression">Depression</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="accomplished">accomplished</span> <span word="thanks">thanks</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="combination">combination</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="household">household</span> <span word="austerity">austerity</span>, <span word="inflation">inflation</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="government">government</span> <span word="stimulus">stimulus</span>. <span word="Household">Household</span> <span word="austerity">austerity</span> <span word="occurred">occurred</span> <span word="thanks">thanks</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="elevated">elevated</span> <span word="savings">savings</span> <span word="rates">rates</span> <span word="along">along</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="pay">pay</span>-<span word="downs">downs</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="defaults">defaults</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="debt">debt</span> <span word="during">during</span> <span word="the">the</span> 1930<span word="s">s</span> <span word="while">while</span> <span word="rationing">rationing</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="support">support</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="war">war</span> <span word="effort">effort</span> <span word="had">had</span> <span word="similar">similar</span> <span word="effects">effects</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> 1940<span word="s">s</span>. <span word="Additionally">Additionally</span>, <span word="breaking">breaking</span> <span word="away">away</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="gold">gold</span> <span word="standard">standard</span> <span word="helped">helped</span> <span word="raise">raise</span> <span word="prices">prices</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="therefore">therefore</span> <span word="reduced">reduced</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="real">real</span> <span word="value">value</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="America">America</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="debt">debt</span>. <span word="Lastly">Lastly</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="government">government</span> <span word="spending">spending</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="various">various</span> <span word="New">New</span> <span word="Deal">Deal</span> <span word="schemes">schemes</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="vast">vast</span> <span word="mobilization">mobilization</span> <span word="during">during</span> <span word="WWII">WWII</span> <span word="contributed">contributed</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="keeping">keeping</span> <span word="total">total</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span> <span word="growth">growth</span> <span word="positive">positive</span>.</p>
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