如何制定更理性的新年计划
<p><span word="Can">Can</span> '<span word="goal">goal</span> <span word="factoring">factoring</span>' <span word="help">help</span> <span word="you">you</span> <span word="keep">keep</span> <span word="your">your</span> <span word="New">New</span> <span word="Year">Year</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="resolution">resolution</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="hit">hit</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="gym">gym</span> <span word="every">every</span> <span word="day">day</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2017?</p><p>“目标构想”能帮助你坚持自己的新年决心，在2017年的每一天都去健身房健身吗？</p><p>'<span word="Goal">Goal</span> <span word="factoring">factoring</span>, ' <span word="a">a</span> <span word="method">method</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="designing">designing</span> <span word="better">better</span> <span word="plans">plans</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="techniques">techniques</span> <span word="taught">taught</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Center">Center</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="Applied">Applied</span> <span word="Rationality">Rationality</span>, <span word="which">which</span> <span word="hosts">hosts</span> <span word="three">three</span>-<span word="day">day</span> <span word="workshops">workshops</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="teach">teach</span> <span word="attendees">attendees</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="use">use</span> <span word="science">science</span>-<span word="based">based</span> <span word="approaches">approaches</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="achieve">achieve</span> <span word="goals">goals</span>. <span word="A">A</span> <span word="November">November</span> <span word="workshop">workshop</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Ossining">Ossining</span>, <span word="N">N</span>.<span word="Y">Y</span>., <span word="instructed">instructed</span> 23 <span word="participants">participants</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="thinking">thinking</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="one">one</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="future">future</span> <span word="self">self</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="different">different</span> <span word="person">person</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="help">help</span> <span word="goal">goal</span>-<span word="setting">setting</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="why">why</span> <span word="building">building</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="an">an</span> '<span word="emotional">emotional</span> <span word="library">library</span>' <span word="of">of</span> <span word="associations">associations</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="reduce">reduce</span> <span word="procrastination">procrastination</span>.</p><p>“目标构想”是应用理性学习中心(<span word="Center">Center</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="Applied">Applied</span> <span word="Rationality">Rationality</span>，简称“<span word="CFAR">CFAR</span>”)所教授的技巧之一，是一种拟定更合理计划的方法。该中心常举办为期三天的讲习班，教授与会者如何采用有科学依据的方法来实现目标。他们于11月份在纽约州奥西宁(<span word="Ossining">Ossining</span>)举办的讲习班吸引了23名参加者，指导他们把未来的自己想象成一个不同的人可如何帮助制定目标，以及建立“情感（联想）库”为何能减轻拖延。</p><p><span word="CFAR">CFAR</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="Berkeley">Berkeley</span>, <span word="Calif">Calif</span>.-<span word="based">based</span> <span word="nonprofit">nonprofit</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="prominent">prominent</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="growing">growing</span> '<span word="rationality">rationality</span> <span word="movement">movement</span>, ' <span word="which">which</span> <span word="explores">explores</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="science">science</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="optimized">optimized</span> <span word="decision">decision</span>-<span word="making">making</span>. <span word="In">In</span> <span word="recent">recent</span> <span word="years">years</span>, <span word="books">books</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="decision">decision</span>-<span word="making">making</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="probability">probability</span> <span word="theory">theory</span> -- <span word="including">including</span> '<span word="Predictably">Predictably</span> <span word="Irrational">Irrational</span>' <span word="by">by</span> <span word="Dan">Dan</span> <span word="Ariely">Ariely</span>, <span word="who">who</span> <span word="writes">writes</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="regular">regular</span> <span word="column">column</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Wall">Wall</span> <span word="Street">Street</span> <span word="Journal">Journal</span>, <span word="and">and</span> '<span word="Thinking">Thinking</span>, <span word="Fast">Fast</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Slow">Slow</span>' <span word="by">by</span> <span word="Daniel">Daniel</span> <span word="Kahneman">Kahneman</span> -- <span word="have">have</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="best">best</span>-<span word="sellers">sellers</span>. <span word="Websites">Websites</span> <span word="like">like</span> <span word="Overcoming">Overcoming</span> <span word="Bias">Bias</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Less">Less</span> <span word="Wrong">Wrong</span> <span word="serve">serve</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="communities">communities</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="who">who</span> <span word="believe">believe</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="best">best</span> <span word="way">way</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="effective">effective</span>, <span word="whether">whether</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="changing">changing</span> <span word="eating">eating</span> <span word="habits">habits</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="changing">changing</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="world">world</span>, <span word="is">is</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="actively">actively</span> <span word="look">look</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="lessons">lessons</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="science">science</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="hard">hard</span> <span word="data">data</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="movement">movement</span> <span word="draws">draws</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="same">same</span> <span word="research">research</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="economists">economists</span> <span word="who">who</span> <span word="argue">argue</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="investors">investors</span> <span word="behave">behave</span> <span word="irrationally">irrationally</span>.</p>
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