本世纪末全球气温至少上升4摄氏度
<p>科学家估计，如果不减少二氧化碳排放，2100年地球平均气温将至少上升4摄氏度，到2200年会上升8摄氏度，无疑是地球“灾难性的噩梦”。</p><p>此前有科学家用气候模型分析称，全球气温将受二氧化碳排放影响，上升1.5至5摄氏度。最新研究分析了云层的形成和气候变化之间的关系，认定模型低估了气候的敏感度，将气温上升的下限从1.5调整至3摄氏度，平均增幅达到4摄氏度。本项研究已经在学术杂志《自然》上发表。</p><p><span word="According">According</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="December">December</span> 31 <span word="news">news</span> <span word="release">release</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="University">University</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="New">New</span> <span word="South">South</span> <span word="Wales">Wales</span>, <span word="scientists">scientists</span> <span word="estimate">estimate</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="by">by</span> 2100, <span word="global">global</span> <span word="average">average</span> <span word="temperatures">temperatures</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="rise">rise</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="least">least</span> 4 <span word="degrees">degrees</span> <span word="Celsius">Celsius</span> <span word="if">if</span> <span word="carbon">carbon</span> <span word="dioxide">dioxide</span> <span word="emissions">emissions</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="scaled">scaled</span> <span word="back">back</span>. <span word="Additionally">Additionally</span>, <span word="researchers">researchers</span> <span word="say">say</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="continued">continued</span> <span word="increase">increase</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="average">average</span> <span word="temperatures">temperatures</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="result">result</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="additional">additional</span> 4 <span word="degrees">degrees</span> <span word="Celsius">Celsius</span> <span word="by">by</span> 2200.</p><p><span word="The">The</span> <span word="findings">findings</span> <span word="appear">appear</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="recent">recent</span> <span word="article">article</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="journal">journal</span> <span word="Nature">Nature</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="explain">explain</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="great">great</span> <span word="unknowns">unknowns</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="climate">climate</span> <span word="sensitivity">sensitivity</span>: <span word="the">the</span> <span word="role">role</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="cloud">cloud</span> <span word="formation">formation</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="whether">whether</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="positive">positive</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="negative">negative</span> <span word="influence">influence</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="climate">climate</span> <span word="change">change</span>.</p><p>“<span word="Our">Our</span> <span word="research">research</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="shown">shown</span> <span word="climate">climate</span> <span word="models">models</span> <span word="indicating">indicating</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="low">low</span> <span word="temperature">temperature</span> <span word="response">response</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="doubling">doubling</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="carbon">carbon</span> <span word="dioxide">dioxide</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="preindustrial">preindustrial</span> <span word="times">times</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="reproducing">reproducing</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="correct">correct</span> <span word="processes">processes</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="lead">lead</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="cloud">cloud</span> <span word="formation">formation</span>,” <span word="said">said</span> <span word="Steven">Steven</span> <span word="Sherwood">Sherwood</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="professor">professor</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="University">University</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="New">New</span> <span word="South">South</span> <span word="Wales">Wales</span>’ <span word="Centre">Centre</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Excellence">Excellence</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="Climate">Climate</span> <span word="System">System</span> <span word="Science">Science</span>. “<span word="When">When</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="processes">processes</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="correct">correct</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="climate">climate</span> <span word="models">models</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="level">level</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="climate">climate</span> <span word="sensitivity">sensitivity</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="far">far</span> <span word="higher">higher</span>. <span word="Previously">Previously</span>, <span word="estimates">estimates</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="sensitivity">sensitivity</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="temperature">temperature</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="doubling">doubling</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="carbon">carbon</span> <span word="dioxide">dioxide</span> <span word="ranged">ranged</span> <span word="from">from</span> 1.5°<span word="C">C</span> <span word="to">to</span> 5°<span word="C">C</span>. <span word="This">This</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="research">research</span> <span word="takes">takes</span> <span word="away">away</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="lower">lower</span> <span word="end">end</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="climate">climate</span> <span word="sensitivity">sensitivity</span> <span word="estimates">estimates</span>, <span word="meaning">meaning</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="average">average</span> <span word="temperatures">temperatures</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="increase">increase</span> <span word="by">by</span> 3°<span word="C">C</span> <span word="to">to</span> 5°<span word="C">C</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="doubling">doubling</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="carbon">carbon</span> <span word="dioxide">dioxide</span>.”</p>
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