如何预知“不可预知”的灾祸
<p><span word="When">When</span> <span word="Nassim">Nassim</span> <span word="Nicholas">Nicholas</span> <span word="Taleb">Taleb</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="teenager">teenager</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Lebanon">Lebanon</span> <span word="in">in</span> 1975, <span word="an">an</span> <span word="ethnic">ethnic</span> <span word="civil">civil</span> <span word="war">war</span> <span word="broke">broke</span> <span word="out">out</span>. <span word="Locals">Locals</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="baffled">baffled</span>. <span word="They">They</span> <span word="had">had</span> <span word="thought">thought</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="lived">lived</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="a">a</span> “<span word="stable">stable</span> <span word="paradise">paradise</span>”. <span word="Once">Once</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="unforeseen">unforeseen</span> <span word="catastrophe">catastrophe</span> <span word="began">began</span>, <span word="even">even</span> <span word="Taleb">Taleb</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="grandfather">grandfather</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="deputy">deputy</span> <span word="prime">prime</span> <span word="minister">minister</span>, “<span word="did">did</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="seem">seem</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="know">know</span> <span word="what">what</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="going">going</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="happen">happen</span> <span word="any">any</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="driver">driver</span>, <span word="Mikhail">Mikhail</span>”, <span word="wrote">wrote</span> <span word="Taleb">Taleb</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="his">his</span> 2007 <span word="classic">classic</span>, <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Black">Black</span> <span word="Swan">Swan</span>: <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Impact">Impact</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Highly">Highly</span> <span word="Improbable">Improbable</span>.</p><p>1975年，生活在黎巴嫩的纳西姆?尼古拉斯?塔勒布(<span word="Nassim">Nassim</span> <span word="Nicholas">Nicholas</span> <span word="Taleb">Taleb</span>)十几岁时，一场民族内战爆发。当地人对此感到困惑。他们原本以为，他们生活在一个“安稳的乐园”里。塔勒布在他2007年的经典著作《黑天鹅：如何应对不可预知的未来》(<span word="The">The</span> <span word="Black">Black</span> <span word="Swan">Swan</span>: <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Impact">Impact</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Highly">Highly</span> <span word="Improbable">Improbable</span>)中写道，当这场谁也没有料到的灾难爆发时，甚至连塔勒布的祖父、当时的副总理“对于未来会发生什么似乎也不比他的司机米哈伊尔(<span word="Mikhail">Mikhail</span>)知道的多。”</p><p><span word="In">In</span> 1940, <span word="when">when</span> <span word="Daniel">Daniel</span> <span word="Kahneman">Kahneman</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="Jewish">Jewish</span> <span word="boy">boy</span> <span word="living">living</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Paris">Paris</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Germans">Germans</span> <span word="invaded">invaded</span> <span word="France">France</span>. <span word="Kahneman">Kahneman</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="family">family</span> <span word="decided">decided</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="stay">stay</span> <span word="put">put</span>. <span word="Then">Then</span> <span word="came">came</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Holocaust">Holocaust</span>. <span word="While">While</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="family">family</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="hiding">hiding</span>, <span word="Kahneman">Kahneman</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="father">father</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="get">get</span> <span word="treatment">treatment</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="diabetes">diabetes</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="died">died</span>. <span word="Kahneman">Kahneman</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="left">left</span> <span word="wondering">wondering</span> <span word="why">why</span> <span word="humans">humans</span> <span word="fail">fail</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="foresee">foresee</span> <span word="catastrophe">catastrophe</span>.</p><p>1940年，当丹尼尔?卡内曼(<span word="Daniel">Daniel</span> <span word="Kahneman">Kahneman</span>)是一个居住在巴黎的犹太小男孩时，德国入侵法国。卡内曼的家人决定留下。接着犹太人大屠杀(<span word="Holocaust">Holocaust</span>)来了。全家人躲了起来，但他的父亲因无法得到糖尿病治疗而死去。卡内曼开始思考为什么人类无法预知灾难。</p>
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