Educated guess?
<p><span word="Reader">Reader</span> <span word="question">question</span>:</p><p><span word="Please">Please</span> <span word="explain">explain</span> “<span word="educated">educated</span> <span word="guess">guess</span>”, <span word="as">as</span> <span word="in">in</span>: <span word="Economic">Economic</span> <span word="forecasting">forecasting</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="best">best</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="educated">educated</span> <span word="guess">guess</span>.</p><p><span word="My">My</span> <span word="comments">comments</span>:</p><p><span word="Economic">Economic</span> <span word="forecasting">forecasting</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="sophisticated">sophisticated</span> <span word="guesswork">guesswork</span>. <span word="It">It</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="pretty">pretty</span> <span word="sophisticated">sophisticated</span> <span word="no">no</span> <span word="doubt">doubt</span>, <span word="but">but</span> <span word="guesswork">guesswork</span> <span word="nonetheless">nonetheless</span>.</p><p><span word="That">That</span> <span word="means">means</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="forecasting">forecasting</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="wrong">wrong</span>. <span word="You">You</span> <span word="can">can</span>’<span word="t">t</span> <span word="always">always</span> <span word="rely">rely</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="it">it</span>.</p><p><span word="Economic">Economic</span> <span word="forecasting">forecasting</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="like">like</span> <span word="weather">weather</span> <span word="forecasting">forecasting</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="we">we</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="understand">understand</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="weather">weather</span> <span word="forecasting">forecasting</span> <span word="isn">isn</span>’<span word="t">t</span> <span word="always">always</span> <span word="correct">correct</span>. <span word="Weather">Weather</span> <span word="forecasters">forecasters</span> <span word="gather">gather</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="analyze">analyze</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="sorts">sorts</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="data">data</span>, <span word="such">such</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="heat">heat</span> <span word="waves">waves</span> <span word="coming">coming</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="fro">fro</span>, <span word="rainy">rainy</span> <span word="clouds">clouds</span> <span word="forming">forming</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="here">here</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="there">there</span>, <span word="winds">winds</span> <span word="blowing">blowing</span> <span word="hither">hither</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="thither">thither</span>, <span word="so">so</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="so">so</span> <span word="forth">forth</span>. <span word="They">They</span> <span word="even">even</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="assistance">assistance</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="satellites">satellites</span> <span word="these">these</span> <span word="days">days</span>. <span word="Therefore">Therefore</span> <span word="forecasters">forecasters</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="able">able</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="pretty">pretty</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="accurately">accurately</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="where">where</span> <span word="it">it</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="going">going</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="rain">rain</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="things">things</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="nature">nature</span>.</p><p><span word="However">However</span>, <span word="no">no</span> <span word="matter">matter</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="educated">educated</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="forecasters">forecasters</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="sophisticated">sophisticated</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="equipment">equipment</span>, <span word="weather">weather</span> <span word="forecasters">forecasters</span> <span word="know">know</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="well">well</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="we">we</span> <span word="do">do</span>, <span word="that">that</span> <span word="weather">weather</span> <span word="forecast">forecast</span> <span word="can">can</span>’<span word="t">t</span> <span word="always">always</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="right">right</span>.</p><p><span word="Nature">Nature</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="capricious">capricious</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="rightfully">rightfully</span> <span word="so">so</span>. <span word="In">In</span> <span word="plainer">plainer</span> <span word="terms">terms</span>, <span word="there">there</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="always">always</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="unforeseen">unforeseen</span> <span word="forces">forces</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="work">work</span> – <span word="either">either</span> <span word="unforeseen">unforeseen</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="unnoticed">unnoticed</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="ignored">ignored</span>.</p><p><span word="Anyways">Anyways</span>, “<span word="educated">educated</span> <span word="guess">guess</span>” <span word="refers">refers</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="conclusion">conclusion</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="reaches">reaches</span> <span word="based">based</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="knowledge">knowledge</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="given">given</span> <span word="subject">subject</span>. <span word="In">In</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="words">words</span>, <span word="an">an</span> <span word="educated">educated</span> <span word="guess">guess</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="wild">wild</span> <span word="guess">guess</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="verdict">verdict</span> <span word="reached">reached</span> <span word="without">without</span> <span word="hesitation">hesitation</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="careful">careful</span> <span word="thought">thought</span>.</p>
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