考研冲刺真题文章解析（1）
<p> 油价上涨对全球经济的影响</p><p> ①<span word="Could">Could</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="bad">bad</span> <span word="old">old</span> <span word="days">days</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="decline">decline</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="return">return</span>? ②<span word="Since">Since</span> <span word="OPEC">OPEC</span> <span word="agreed">agreed</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="supply">supply</span>-<span word="cuts">cuts</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="March">March</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="price">price</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="crude">crude</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="jumped">jumped</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> $ 26 <span word="a">a</span> <span word="barrel">barrel</span>, <span word="up">up</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="less">less</span> <span word="than">than</span> $10 <span word="last">last</span> <span word="December">December</span>. ③<span word="This">This</span> <span word="near">near</span>-<span word="tripling">tripling</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="prices">prices</span> <span word="calls">calls</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="scary">scary</span> <span word="memories">memories</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> 1973 <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="shock">shock</span>, <span word="when">when</span> <span word="prices">prices</span> <span word="quadrupled">quadrupled</span>, <span word="and">and</span> 1979 1980, <span word="when">when</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="almost">almost</span> <span word="tripled">tripled</span>. ④<span word="Both">Both</span> <span word="previous">previous</span> <span word="shocks">shocks</span> <span word="resulted">resulted</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="double">double</span>-<span word="digit">digit</span> <span word="inflation">inflation</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="decline">decline</span>. ⑤<span word="So">So</span> <span word="where">where</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="headlines">headlines</span> <span word="warning">warning</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="gloom">gloom</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="doom">doom</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="time">time</span>?</p><p> ①<span word="The">The</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="price">price</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="given">given</span> <span word="another">another</span> <span word="push">push</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="week">week</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="Iraq">Iraq</span> <span word="suspended">suspended</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="exports">exports</span>. ②<span word="Strengthening">Strengthening</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="growth">growth</span>, <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="same">same</span> <span word="time">time</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="winter">winter</span> <span word="grips">grips</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="northern">northern</span> <span word="hemisphere">hemisphere</span>, <span word="could">could</span> <span word="push">push</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="price">price</span> <span word="higher">higher</span> <span word="still">still</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="short">short</span> <span word="term">term</span>.</p><p> ①<span word="Yet">Yet</span> <span word="there">there</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="reasons">reasons</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="expect">expect</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="consequences">consequences</span> <span word="now">now</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="less">less</span> <span word="severe">severe</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> 1970<span word="s">s</span>. ②<span word="In">In</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="countries">countries</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="cost">cost</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="crude">crude</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="now">now</span> <span word="accounts">accounts</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="smaller">smaller</span> <span word="share">share</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="price">price</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="petrol">petrol</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="did">did</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> 1970<span word="s">s</span>. ③<span word="In">In</span> <span word="Europe">Europe</span>, <span word="taxes">taxes</span> <span word="account">account</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="four">four</span>-<span word="fifths">fifths</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="retail">retail</span> <span word="price">price</span>, <span word="so">so</span> <span word="even">even</span> <span word="quite">quite</span> <span word="big">big</span> <span word="changes">changes</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="price">price</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="crude">crude</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="muted">muted</span> <span word="effect">effect</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="pump">pump</span> <span word="prices">prices</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="past">past</span>.</p><p> ①<span word="Rich">Rich</span> <span word="economies">economies</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="less">less</span> <span word="dependent">dependent</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="were">were</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="so">so</span> <span word="less">less</span> <span word="sensitive">sensitive</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="swings">swings</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="price">price</span>. ②<span word="Energy">Energy</span> <span word="conservation">conservation</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="shift">shift</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="fuels">fuels</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="decline">decline</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="importance">importance</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="heavy">heavy</span>, <span word="energy">energy</span>-<span word="intensive">intensive</span> <span word="industries">industries</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="reduced">reduced</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="consumption">consumption</span>. ③<span word="Software">Software</span>, <span word="consultancy">consultancy</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="mobile">mobile</span> <span word="telephones">telephones</span> <span word="use">use</span> <span word="far">far</span> <span word="less">less</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="steel">steel</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="car">car</span> <span word="production">production</span>. ④<span word="For">For</span> <span word="each">each</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span> (<span word="in">in</span> <span word="constant">constant</span> <span word="prices">prices</span>) <span word="rich">rich</span> <span word="economies">economies</span> <span word="now">now</span> <span word="use">use</span> <span word="nearly">nearly</span> 50% <span word="less">less</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="in">in</span> 1973. ⑤<span word="The">The</span> <span word="OECD">OECD</span> <span word="estimates">estimates</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="latest">latest</span> <span word="Economic">Economic</span> <span word="Outlook">Outlook</span> <span word="that">that</span>, <span word="if">if</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="prices">prices</span> <span word="averaged">averaged</span> $ 22 <span word="a">a</span> <span word="barrel">barrel</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="full">full</span> <span word="year">year</span>, <span word="compared">compared</span> <span word="with">with</span> $13 <span word="in">in</span> 1998, <span word="this">this</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="increase">increase</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="import">import</span> <span word="bill">bill</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="rich">rich</span> <span word="economies">economies</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="only">only</span> 0.25 0.5% <span word="of">of</span> <span word="GDP">GDP</span>. ⑥<span word="That">That</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="less">less</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="one">one</span>-<span word="quarter">quarter</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="income">income</span> <span word="loss">loss</span> <span word="in">in</span> 1974 <span word="or">or</span> 1980. ⑦<span word="On">On</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="hand">hand</span>, <span word="oil">oil</span>-<span word="importing">importing</span> <span word="emerging">emerging</span> <span word="economies">economies</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="heavy">heavy</span> <span word="industry">industry</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="shifted">shifted</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="become">become</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="energy">energy</span>-<span word="intensive">intensive</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="so">so</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="seriously">seriously</span> <span word="squeezed">squeezed</span>.</p>
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