“小金人”背后的秘密
<p><span word="If">If</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Oscars">Oscars</span> <span word="seem">seem</span> <span word="boring">boring</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="predictable">predictable</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="you">you</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="year">year</span>, <span word="then">then</span> <span word="you">you</span>'<span word="re">re</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="company">company</span>. <span word="Sociologists">Sociologists</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="considered">considered</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Academy">Academy</span> <span word="Awards">Awards</span> <span word="predictable">predictable</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="long">long</span> <span word="time">time</span>.</p><p><span word="A">A</span> <span word="few">few</span> <span word="weeks">weeks</span> <span word="ago">ago</span>, <span word="I">I</span> <span word="spoke">spoke</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="Gabriel">Gabriel</span> <span word="Rossman">Rossman</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="UCLA">UCLA</span> <span word="sociologist">sociologist</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="interesting">interesting</span> <span word="research">research</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="intersection">intersection</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="economics">economics</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="pop">pop</span> <span word="culture">culture</span>. <span word="Rossman">Rossman</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="fascinating">fascinating</span> <span word="papers">papers</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Oscars">Oscars</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="first">first</span> <span word="addressed">addressed</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="tantalizing">tantalizing</span> <span word="question">question</span>: <span word="What">What</span> <span word="qualities">qualities</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="movie">movie</span> <span word="best">best</span> <span word="predict">predict</span> <span word="Oscars">Oscars</span> <span word="nominations">nominations</span>?</p><p><span word="Unsurprisingly">Unsurprisingly</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="biggest">biggest</span> <span word="correlation">correlation</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="very">very</span> <span word="serious">serious</span> <span word="movie">movie</span>. <span word="Considering">Considering</span> 172,000 <span word="performances">performances</span> <span word="listed">listed</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="IMDB">IMDB</span> <span word="in">in</span> 20,000 <span word="movies">movies</span>, <span word="Rossman">Rossman</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="co">co</span>-<span word="author">author</span> <span word="Nicole">Nicole</span> <span word="Esparza">Esparza</span> <span word="found">found</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="dramas">dramas</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="nine">nine</span> <span word="times">times</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="likely">likely</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="get">get</span> <span word="nominations">nominations</span>.</p><p><span word="The">The</span> <span word="second">second</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="third">third</span> <span word="best">best</span> <span word="predictors">predictors</span> <span word="both">both</span> <span word="had">had</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="do">do</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="size">size</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="competition">competition</span>. <span word="When">When</span> <span word="there">there</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="fewer">fewer</span> <span word="films">films</span> <span word="released">released</span> <span word="around">around</span> <span word="awards">awards</span> <span word="season">season</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="odds">odds</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="any">any</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="movie">movie</span> <span word="gets">gets</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="nomination">nomination</span> <span word="increases">increases</span>. <span word="This">This</span> <span word="simple">simple</span> <span word="principle">principle</span> <span word="applies">applies</span>, <span word="rather">rather</span> <span word="unfortunately">unfortunately</span>, <span word="to">to</span> <span word="actresses">actresses</span>, <span word="as">as</span> <span word="well">well</span>. <span word="It">It</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="industry">industry</span> <span word="truism">truism</span>, <span word="borne">borne</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="evidence">evidence</span>, <span word="that">that</span> <span word="women">women</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="fewer">fewer</span> <span word="meaty">meaty</span> <span word="roles">roles</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="types">types</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="movies">movies</span> <span word="likely">likely</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="nominated">nominated</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="Oscar">Oscar</span>. <span word="That">That</span> <span word="means">means</span> <span word="any">any</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="dramatic">dramatic</span> <span word="end">end</span>-<span word="of">of</span>-<span word="year">year</span> <span word="performance">performance</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="woman">woman</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="higher">higher</span> <span word="chance">chance</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="earning">earning</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="nomination">nomination</span>.</p><p><span word="Perhaps">Perhaps</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="substantive">substantive</span> <span word="finding">finding</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="paper">paper</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="people">people</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="high">high</span> <span word="IMDB">IMDB</span> <span word="movie">movie</span> <span word="rankings">rankings</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="past">past</span> <span word="movie">movie</span> <span word="credits">credits</span> <span word="were">were</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="likely">likely</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="work">work</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="stars">stars</span>, <span word="doubling">doubling</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="chances">chances</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="getting">getting</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="nomination">nomination</span>. “<span word="Actors">Actors</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="going">going</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="look">look</span> <span word="good">good</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="work">work</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="talented">talented</span> <span word="people">people</span>," <span word="Rossman">Rossman</span> <span word="told">told</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Daily">Daily</span> <span word="Bruin">Bruin</span>. "<span word="This">This</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="interesting">interesting</span> <span word="thing">thing</span> <span word="since">since</span> <span word="you">you</span> <span word="tend">tend</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="get">get</span> <span word="talented">talented</span> <span word="people">people</span> <span word="working">working</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="talented">talented</span> <span word="people">people</span>, <span word="meaning">meaning</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="people">people</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="end">end</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="looking">looking</span> <span word="even">even</span> <span word="better">better</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="just">just</span> <span word="working">working</span> <span word="alone">alone</span>.”</p>
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