新一轮全球经济衰退可能提早到来
<p><span word="In">In</span> <span word="business">business</span>, <span word="as">as</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="life">life</span>, <span word="good">good</span> <span word="leaders">leaders</span> <span word="hope">hope</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="best">best</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="plan">plan</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="worst">worst</span>. <span word="There">There</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="reason">reason</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="experts">experts</span> <span word="refer">refer</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="regular">regular</span> <span word="expansion">expansion</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="contraction">contraction</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="business">business</span> <span word="cycle">cycle</span>.</p><p>商业中和生活中一样，优秀的领导抱最好的希望，做最坏的打算。专家们称经济周期是经济规律性的扩张和收缩是有原因。</p><p><span word="Even">Even</span> <span word="producers">producers</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="recession">recession</span>-<span word="proof">proof</span> <span word="products">products</span>—<span word="toiletries">toiletries</span>, <span word="beer">beer</span>, <span word="funeral">funeral</span> <span word="services">services</span>—<span word="need">need</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="consider">consider</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="rising">rising</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="falling">falling</span> <span word="consumer">consumer</span> <span word="sentiment">sentiment</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="affect">affect</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="bottom">bottom</span> <span word="line">line</span>.</p><p>即使是最抗经济衰退的产品--洗漱用品、啤酒、殡葬服务--的供应商也需要考虑消费者情绪的起落对他们底线的影响。</p><p><span word="Of">Of</span> <span word="course">course</span>, <span word="timing">timing</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="next">next</span> <span word="downturn">downturn</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="easier">easier</span> <span word="said">said</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="done">done</span>. <span word="So">So</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="we">we</span> <span word="head">head</span> <span word="into">into</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="new">new</span> <span word="year">year</span>, <span word="we">we</span> <span word="reached">reached</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Fast">Fast</span> <span word="Company">Company</span> <span word="Impact">Impact</span> <span word="Council">Council</span>—<span word="a">a</span> <span word="leadership">leadership</span> <span word="group">group</span> <span word="of">of</span> 200 <span word="founders">founders</span>, <span word="executives">executives</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="creatives">creatives</span>—<span word="to">to</span> <span word="gauge">gauge</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="smartest">smartest</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="innovative">innovative</span> <span word="people">people</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="business">business</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="thinking">thinking</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="possible">possible</span> <span word="recession">recession</span>.</p><p>当然，预测下一次衰退说起来容易做起来难。因此我们在步入新一年的时候，联系了《快速公司》影响委员会（<span word="Fast">Fast</span> <span word="Company">Company</span> <span word="Impact">Impact</span> <span word="Council">Council</span>），以便获悉商业中最聪明最富创新精神的一拨人是如何看待可能发生的经济衰退的。这个委员会是由200名创始人、执行官和创意官组成的领导集团。</p><p><span word="About">About</span> 4 <span word="in">in</span> 10 <span word="respondents">respondents</span> <span word="told">told</span> <span word="us">us</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="expect">expect</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2020 <span word="to">to</span> <span word="perform">perform</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="same">same</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="remarkably">remarkably</span>, <span word="nearly">nearly</span> 45% <span word="predicted">predicted</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="next">next</span> 12 <span word="months">months</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="worse">worse</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="business">business</span>. <span word="Only">Only</span> 16% <span word="said">said</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="better">better</span>.</p>
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