中国接近“低生育陷阱”应尽快全面放开二孩
<p>中国社科院发布的《经济蓝皮书：2017年中国经济形势分析与预测》呼吁，政府应该尽快从现有的“单独二孩”政策过渡到“全面放开二孩”政策。</p><p>请看相关报道：</p><p><span word="The">The</span> <span word="fertility">fertility</span> <span word="rate">rate</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="now">now</span> 1.4 <span word="children">children</span> <span word="per">per</span> <span word="woman">woman</span>, <span word="almost">almost</span> <span word="touching">touching</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="warning">warning</span> <span word="line">line</span> <span word="of">of</span> 1.3 <span word="that">that</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="recognized">recognized</span> <span word="globally">globally</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="the">the</span> "<span word="low">low</span> <span word="fertility">fertility</span> <span word="trap">trap</span>", <span word="according">according</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="report">report</span>.</p><p>报告指出，中国目前的总和生育率只有1.4，这个水平已经非常接近国际上公认的1.3的“低生育陷阱”的警戒线。</p><p>文中的<span word="low">low</span> <span word="fertility">fertility</span> <span word="trap">trap</span>就是“低生育陷阱”，相关说法还有低生育率(<span word="low">low</span> <span word="fertility">fertility</span> <span word="rate">rate</span>)。那么什么是低生育陷阱呢？</p><p>从经济学(<span word="economic">economic</span>)的角度讲，所谓的“低生育陷阱”是由于消费欲望(<span word="consuming">consuming</span> <span word="desires">desires</span>)的提升导致的育儿意愿(<span word="willingness">willingness</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="babies">babies</span>)降低。随着社会文明化程度的提高和经济快速发展(<span word="rapid">rapid</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="development">development</span>)，生育意愿不断降低是人类社会发展的必然规律。正因为如此，很多工业化和城市化水平较高的西方国家，人口都出现负增长(<span word="negative">negative</span> <span word="growth">growth</span>)的趋势。</p><p>报告指出，一旦一个国家陷入低生育陷阱，三个自我强化的机制(<span word="self">self</span>-<span word="reinforcing">reinforcing</span> <span word="mechanisms">mechanisms</span>)——人口统计(<span word="demographic">demographic</span>)、社会以及经济将共同作用，使生育率保持一种螺旋式下跌的趋势(<span word="maintaining">maintaining</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="downward">downward</span> <span word="spiral">spiral</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="fertility">fertility</span>)，并难以恢复。</p>
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