人民币中间价报价或加“逆周期因子”
<p>中国外汇交易中心26日表示，外汇市场自律机制汇率工作组考虑在人民币对美元汇率中间价报价模型中引入逆周期因子。专家表示，这样或可适度对冲市场情绪的顺周期波动，缓解外汇市场可能存在的“羊群效应”。</p><p><span word="China">China</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="considering">considering</span> <span word="introducing">introducing</span> <span word="a">a</span> "<span word="countercyclical">countercyclical</span> <span word="factor">factor</span>" <span word="to">to</span> <span word="adjust">adjust</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="way">way</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="calculates">calculates</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="yuan">yuan</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="daily">daily</span> <span word="reference">reference</span> <span word="rate">rate</span> <span word="against">against</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="dollar">dollar</span>, <span word="according">according</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="statement">statement</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="country">country</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="foreign">foreign</span> <span word="exchange">exchange</span> <span word="trading">trading</span> <span word="system">system</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="Friday">Friday</span>.</p><p>中国外汇交易中心26日表示，我国正在考虑在人民币对美元汇率中间价报价模型中引入逆周期因子。</p><p>当前我国外汇市场（<span word="foreign">foreign</span> <span word="exchange">exchange</span> <span word="market">market</span>）可能仍存在一定的顺周期性，容易受到非理性预期的惯性驱使（<span word="prone">prone</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="habitual">habitual</span> <span word="influences">influences</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="irrational">irrational</span> <span word="expectations">expectations</span>），放大单边市场预期（<span word="one">one</span>-<span word="way">way</span> <span word="market">market</span> <span word="expectations">expectations</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="sometimes">sometimes</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="exaggerated">exaggerated</span>），进而导致市场供求出现一定程度的“失真”，增大市场汇率超调的风险。</p><p>汇率根本上应由经济基本面（ <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="fundamentals">fundamentals</span>）决定，但在美元指数出现较大幅度回落、我国主要经济指标总体向好（<span word="China">China</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="fundamentals">fundamentals</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="improved">improved</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="general">general</span>）的情况下，人民币对美元市场汇率多数时间都在按照“收盘价+一篮子货币汇率变化”机制确定的中间价的贬值方向运行。</p><p>人民币对美元汇率中间价报价模型中引入逆周期因子（<span word="countercyclical">countercyclical</span> <span word="factor">factor</span>），有助于适度对冲市场情绪的顺周期波动（<span word="procyclical">procyclical</span> <span word="fluctuation">fluctuation</span>），合理引导市场预期，遏制市场非理性炒作行为，缓解外汇市场可能存在的“羊群效应”（<span word="lessen">lessen</span> <span word="possible">possible</span> "<span word="herd">herd</span> <span word="effects">effects</span>"），从而避免人民币汇率剧烈波动（<span word="prevent">prevent</span> <span word="excessive">excessive</span> <span word="fluctuation">fluctuation</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="yuan">yuan</span>）。</p>
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