meili 发表于 2022-10-18 21:42:39

比黑天鹅更可怕的“灰犀牛”到底是啥?

<p>7月17日,金融工作会议召开后的首个工作日,《人民日报》在头版刊发评论员文章《有效防范金融风险》,文中提到:“防范化解金融风险,需要增强忧患意识。……既防‘黑天鹅’,也防‘灰犀牛’,对各类风险苗头既不能掉以轻心,也不能置若罔闻。”</p><p>黑天鹅(<span word="black">black</span> <span word="swan">swan</span>)指影响巨大、难以预知且罕见的事件(<span word="high">high</span>-<span word="impact">impact</span>, <span word="hard">hard</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="predict">predict</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="rare">rare</span> <span word="events">events</span>)。那么“灰犀牛”又指什么呢?</p><p>“灰犀牛”(<span word="grey">grey</span> <span word="rhino">rhino</span>)这一概念是由美国学者、古根海姆学者奖得主米歇尔•渥克(<span word="Michele">Michele</span> <span word="Wucker">Wucker</span>)于2013年1月在达沃斯全球论坛上提出的,在她所著的《灰犀牛:如何应对大概率危机(<span word="The">The</span> <span word="Gray">Gray</span> <span word="Rhino">Rhino</span>: <span word="How">How</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="Recognise">Recognise</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Act">Act</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Obvious">Obvious</span> <span word="Dangers">Dangers</span> <span word="We">We</span> <span word="Ignore">Ignore</span>)》一书中,她提出,“灰犀牛就是指概率极大、冲击力极强却被忽视的风险(<span word="a">a</span> <span word="highly">highly</span> <span word="probable">probable</span>, <span word="high">high</span> <span word="impact">impact</span> <span word="yet">yet</span> <span word="neglected">neglected</span> <span word="threat">threat</span>):一个我们应该意识到的风险,就像是一头两吨重的犀牛,把牛角对准我们全速向我们攻击”。</p>
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