大数据有望让计划经济复活
<p><span word="There">There</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="several">several</span> <span word="theories">theories</span> <span word="why">why</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Soviet">Soviet</span> <span word="Union">Union</span> <span word="collapsed">collapsed</span>: <span word="imperial">imperial</span> <span word="overstretch">overstretch</span>, <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="inefficiency">inefficiency</span>, <span word="ideological">ideological</span> <span word="bankruptcy">bankruptcy</span>. <span word="Take">Take</span> <span word="your">your</span> <span word="pick">pick</span> <span word="or">or</span> <span word="mix">mix</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="three">three</span>.</p><p>有多种理论可以解释苏联为何解体：帝国过度扩张、经济效率低下、意识形态破产。你可以任选一种，或者把三者都算进去。</p><p><span word="But">But</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="book">book</span> <span word="Homo">Homo</span> <span word="Deus">Deus</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Israeli">Israeli</span> <span word="historian">historian</span> <span word="Yuval">Yuval</span> <span word="Noah">Noah</span> <span word="Harari">Harari</span> <span word="suggests">suggests</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="prosaic">prosaic</span> <span word="reason">reason</span>: <span word="planned">planned</span> <span word="economies">economies</span> (<span word="and">and</span> <span word="authoritarian">authoritarian</span> <span word="regimes">regimes</span>) <span word="are">are</span> <span word="rubbish">rubbish</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="processing">processing</span> <span word="data">data</span>. “<span word="Capitalism">Capitalism</span> <span word="won">won</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="cold">cold</span> <span word="war">war</span> <span word="because">because</span> <span word="distributed">distributed</span> <span word="data">data</span>-<span word="processing">processing</span> <span word="works">works</span> <span word="better">better</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="centralised">centralised</span> <span word="data">data</span>-<span word="processing">processing</span>,” <span word="he">he</span> <span word="wrote">wrote</span>.</p><p>但是，以色列历史学家尤瓦尔?诺亚?哈拉里(<span word="Yuval">Yuval</span> <span word="Noah">Noah</span> <span word="Harari">Harari</span>)在《人神》(<span word="Homo">Homo</span> <span word="Deus">Deus</span>)一书中，提出了一个更为平凡的原因：计划经济（以及威权政府）在处理数据方面是废物。他写道：“资本主义赢得了冷战，因为分布式数据处理比集中化的数据处理更有效。”</p><p><span word="How">How</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="any">any</span> <span word="central">central</span> <span word="planner">planner</span> <span word="sitting">sitting</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Gosplan">Gosplan</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="offices">offices</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="Moscow">Moscow</span> <span word="hope">hope</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="understand">understand</span> <span word="all">all</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="moving">moving</span> <span word="parts">parts</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Soviet">Soviet</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="across">across</span> 11 <span word="time">time</span> <span word="zones">zones</span>?</p><p>坐在莫斯科苏联国家计划委员会(<span word="Gosplan">Gosplan</span>)办公室的一位中央规划者，有什么希望弄清楚横跨11个时区的苏联经济所有不断变化的部分？</p>
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