美国人为什么用土拨鼠来预测天气？
<p>这个冬天格外寒冷，谁也不知道温暖的春天何时才会来临。在美国，如果人们想知道冬天还会持续多久，就会在2月2日这天看一只土拨鼠能不能看到自己的影子。人们为什么会认为土拨鼠能预测天气？这只土拨鼠预测得准不准呢？</p><p><span word="Mental">Mental</span> <span word="Floss">Floss</span>网站截图</p><p><span word="It">It</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="only">only</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="past">past</span> 60 <span word="or">or</span> <span word="so">so</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="humans">humans</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="able">able</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="rely">rely</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="television">television</span> <span word="meteorologists">meteorologists</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="weather">weather</span> <span word="predictions">predictions</span>. <span word="Before">Before</span> <span word="Al">Al</span> <span word="Roker">Roker</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Babylonians">Babylonians</span> <span word="looked">looked</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="cloud">cloud</span> <span word="formations">formations</span>; <span word="in">in</span> 300 <span word="BC">BC</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Chinese">Chinese</span> <span word="had">had</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="calendar">calendar</span> <span word="broken">broken</span> <span word="into">into</span> 24 <span word="festivals">festivals</span>, <span word="each">each</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="own">own</span> <span word="unique">unique</span> <span word="weather">weather</span> <span word="patterns">patterns</span>.</p><p>直到大约60年前，人类才得以通过看电视上的天气预报来预知天气。在有美国气象播报员阿尔·洛克之前，巴比伦人是通过观看云体形成来预知天气的；在公元前300年，中国人将一年分成24个节气，每个节气都有各自独特的气候模式。</p><p><span word="Today">Today</span> <span word="we">we</span> <span word="use">use</span> <span word="satellites">satellites</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="other">other</span> <span word="costly">costly</span> <span word="equipment">equipment</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="gauge">gauge</span> <span word="our">our</span> <span word="environment">environment</span>, <span word="examining">examining</span> <span word="changes">changes</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="atmosphere">atmosphere</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="running">running</span> <span word="sophisticated">sophisticated</span> <span word="computer">computer</span> <span word="models">models</span>. <span word="And">And</span> <span word="sometimes">sometimes</span>, <span word="we">we</span> <span word="just">just</span> <span word="stare">stare</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="groundhog">groundhog</span>.</p><p>今天我们用人造卫星和其他昂贵的设备来监测我们的环境、气候的改变并运行精密的计算机模型。不过有时候，我们只看土拨鼠来预知天气。</p><p><span word="Every">Every</span> <span word="February">February</span> 2, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="doughy">doughy</span> <span word="rodent">rodent</span> <span word="named">named</span> <span word="Punxsutawney">Punxsutawney</span> <span word="Phil">Phil</span> <span word="briefly">briefly</span> <span word="emerges">emerges</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="winter">winter</span> <span word="hibernation">hibernation</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="look">look</span> <span word="around">around</span>. <span word="If">If</span> <span word="he">he</span> <span word="sees">sees</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="shadow">shadow</span>, <span word="that">that</span> <span word="means">means</span> <span word="there">there</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="six">six</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="weeks">weeks</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="winter">winter</span>. <span word="If">If</span> <span word="he">he</span> <span word="doesn">doesn</span>'<span word="t">t</span>, <span word="we">we</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="assume">assume</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="warm">warm</span> <span word="weather">weather</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="looming">looming</span>.</p>
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