数据告诉你:剩男危机论还没到来
<p><span word="The">The</span> <span word="number">number</span> <span word="of">of</span> 30-<span word="plus">plus</span> <span word="bachelors">bachelors</span>, <span word="or">or</span> "<span word="leftover">leftover</span> <span word="men">men</span>", <span word="in">in</span> <span word="China">China</span>'<span word="s">s</span> <span word="rural">rural</span> <span word="areas">areas</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="astonishing">astonishing</span>. <span word="Some">Some</span> <span word="demographers">demographers</span> <span word="estimate">estimate</span> <span word="there">there</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="be">be</span> 30 <span word="million">million</span>, <span word="even">even</span> 50 <span word="million">million</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="them">them</span> <span word="thanks">thanks</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="widening">widening</span> <span word="sex">sex</span> <span word="ratio">ratio</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="birth">birth</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="such">such</span> <span word="estimation">estimation</span>, <span word="to">to</span> <span word="some">some</span> <span word="extent">extent</span>, <span word="overstates">overstates</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="reality">reality</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="rural">rural</span> <span word="residents">residents</span>' <span word="marital">marital</span> <span word="status">status</span>.</p><p>在中国农村地区，三十岁以上的单身男性（俗称“剩男”）的数量非常惊人。一些人口统计学家预测，由于男女比例失调日益严重，这一数字将会达到三千万，甚至五千万。但是这种对于农村地区人民的婚姻状况的推断在某种程度上有些言过其实。</p><p><span word="The">The</span> <span word="gender">gender</span> <span word="imbalance">imbalance</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="indicate">indicate</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="number">number</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="unmarried">unmarried</span> <span word="men">men</span>, <span word="not">not</span> <span word="necessarily">necessarily</span> "<span word="leftover">leftover</span> <span word="men">men</span>", <span word="is">is</span> <span word="higher">higher</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="women">women</span>. <span word="But">But</span> <span word="since">since</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="husband">husband</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="five">five</span> <span word="years">years</span> <span word="older">older</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="his">his</span> <span word="wife">wife</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="vice">vice</span>-<span word="versa">versa</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="age">age</span> <span word="gap">gap</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="major">major</span> <span word="concern">concern</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="marriage">marriage</span>.</p><p>男女比例失调也许可以预测未婚男子的数量（不一定都是“剩男”）比女性高。但是这没有考虑到年龄差距在婚姻中并不是主要影响因素，例如丈夫可能会比妻子年长五岁，反之亦然。</p>
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