中国如何让资本外流变成好事
<p><span word="After">After</span> <span word="increasing">increasing</span> <span word="relentlessly">relentlessly</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="two">two</span> <span word="decades">decades</span>, <span word="China">China</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="foreign">foreign</span> <span word="exchange">exchange</span> <span word="reserves">reserves</span> <span word="started">started</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="decline">decline</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="year">year</span> <span word="ago">ago</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="during">during</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="crisis">crisis</span> <span word="month">month</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="August">August</span> 2017 <span word="they">they</span> <span word="plummeted">plummeted</span> <span word="alarmingly">alarmingly</span>. <span word="Seen">Seen</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="many">many</span> <span word="investors">investors</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="signal">signal</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="waning">waning</span> <span word="confidence">confidence</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="credibility">credibility</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Chinese">Chinese</span> <span word="economic">economic</span> <span word="policy">policy</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="collapse">collapse</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="reserves">reserves</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="now">now</span> <span word="taken">taken</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="one">one</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="prime">prime</span> <span word="reasons">reasons</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="dump">dump</span> <span word="risk">risk</span> <span word="assets">assets</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="global">global</span> <span word="basis">basis</span>. <span word="As">As</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="balance">balance</span> <span word="sheet">sheet</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="PBOC">PBOC</span> <span word="shrinks">shrinks</span>, <span word="investors">investors</span> <span word="fear">fear</span> <span word="that">that</span> “<span word="quantitative">quantitative</span> <span word="tightening">tightening</span>” <span word="will">will</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="triggered">triggered</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="developed">developed</span> <span word="bond">bond</span> <span word="markets">markets</span>, <span word="and">and</span> <span word="worry">worry</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="credit">credit</span> <span word="crunch">crunch</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="occur">occur</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="itself">itself</span>.</p><p>在连续不停地增加20年之后，中国的外汇储备在大约一年前开始减少，在2017年8月的危机期间以令人震惊的幅度下降。在许多投资者眼里，这是市场对中国经济政策可信度的信心在降低的标志，中国外汇储备大幅减少现在被列为在全球范围抛售风险资产的主要原因之一。随着中国央行(<span word="PBoC">PBoC</span>)资产负债表缩小，投资者害怕这将在在发达国家债券市场触发“量化紧缩”，并担心中国自身将发生信贷危机。</p><p><span word="These">These</span> <span word="concerns">concerns</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="entirely">entirely</span> <span word="without">without</span> <span word="foundation">foundation</span> <span word="but">but</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="confidence">confidence</span> <span word="run">run</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="renminbi">renminbi</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="still">still</span> <span word="unlikely">unlikely</span>. <span word="Much">Much</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="depend">depend</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="whether">whether</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Chinese">Chinese</span> <span word="authorities">authorities</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="shed">shed</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="cloak">cloak</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="secrecy">secrecy</span> <span word="sufficiently">sufficiently</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="lay">lay</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="clear">clear</span> <span word="strategy">strategy</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="reserves">reserves</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="exchange">exchange</span> <span word="rate">rate</span>, <span word="monetary">monetary</span> <span word="policy">policy</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="necessary">necessary</span> <span word="clean">clean</span> <span word="up">up</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="domestic">domestic</span> <span word="banking">banking</span> <span word="system">system</span>. <span word="If">If</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="right">right</span> <span word="strategy">strategy</span> <span word="emerges">emerges</span>, <span word="confidence">confidence</span> <span word="can">can</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="restored">restored</span>, <span word="because">because</span> <span word="China">China</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="very">very</span> <span word="far">far</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="insolvent">insolvent</span> <span word="nation">nation</span>.</p>
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