吸烟与肺癌的关系真的有那么大吗
<p><span word="It">It</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="said">said</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="there">there</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="correlation">correlation</span> <span word="between">between</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="number">number</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="storks">storks</span>’ <span word="nests">nests</span> <span word="found">found</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="Danish">Danish</span> <span word="houses">houses</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="number">number</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="children">children</span> <span word="born">born</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="those">those</span> <span word="houses">houses</span>. <span word="Could">Could</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="old">old</span> <span word="story">story</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="babies">babies</span> <span word="being">being</span> <span word="delivered">delivered</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="storks">storks</span> <span word="really">really</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="true">true</span>? <span word="No">No</span>. <span word="Correlation">Correlation</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="causation">causation</span>. <span word="Storks">Storks</span> <span word="do">do</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="deliver">deliver</span> <span word="children">children</span> <span word="but">but</span> <span word="larger">larger</span> <span word="houses">houses</span> <span word="have">have</span> <span word="more">more</span> <span word="room">room</span> <span word="both">both</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="children">children</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="storks">storks</span>.</p><p>丹麦流传着一种说法，一户人家屋檐上的鹳巢数量与这家人所生孩子的数量存在着相关性。婴儿是鹳鸟送来的古老传说是真的吗？当然不是。相关性跟因果关系不是一回事。鹳不会送来孩子，但大房子有更大的空间为孩子和鹳所用。</p><p><span word="This">This</span> <span word="much">much</span>-<span word="loved">loved</span> <span word="statistical">statistical</span> <span word="anecdote">anecdote</span> <span word="seems">seems</span> <span word="less">less</span> <span word="amusing">amusing</span> <span word="when">when</span> <span word="you">you</span> <span word="consider">consider</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="it">it</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="used">used</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="US">US</span> <span word="Senate">Senate</span> <span word="committee">committee</span> <span word="hearing">hearing</span> <span word="in">in</span> 1965. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="expert">expert</span> <span word="witness">witness</span> <span word="giving">giving</span> <span word="testimony">testimony</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="arguing">arguing</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="while">while</span> <span word="smoking">smoking</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="correlated">correlated</span> <span word="with">with</span> <span word="lung">lung</span> <span word="cancer">cancer</span>, <span word="a">a</span> <span word="causal">causal</span> <span word="relationship">relationship</span> <span word="was">was</span> <span word="unproven">unproven</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="implausible">implausible</span>. <span word="Pressed">Pressed</span> <span word="on">on</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="statistical">statistical</span> <span word="parallels">parallels</span> <span word="between">between</span> <span word="storks">storks</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="cigarettes">cigarettes</span>, <span word="he">he</span> <span word="replied">replied</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="they">they</span> “<span word="seem">seem</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="me">me</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="same">same</span>”.</p><p>这是一则人们喜闻乐见的统计趣闻，但如果你知道1965年在美国参议院一场听证会上它是如何被用到的，你就不会觉得那么有趣了。那位做听证发言的专家证人辩称，尽管吸烟或许跟肺癌相关，但两者之间不存在已证明的、令人信服的因果关系。当被问及为何把鹳和孩子的关系与香烟和肺癌的关系进行类比，他回答说，两者“在我看来是一样的”。</p>
页:
[1]