经济学家教你如何坚持去健身房
<p><span word="If">If</span> <span word="you">you</span>’<span word="re">re</span> <span word="like">like</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="lot">lot</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Americans">Americans</span>, <span word="one">one</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="your">your</span> <span word="New">New</span> <span word="Year">Year</span>’<span word="s">s</span> <span word="resolutions">resolutions</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="work">work</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="more">more</span>. <span word="If">If</span> <span word="you">you</span>’<span word="re">re</span> <span word="like">like</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="lot">lot</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Americans">Americans</span>, <span word="you">you</span>’<span word="ll">ll</span> <span word="join">join</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="gym">gym</span> <span word="this">this</span> <span word="January">January</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="part">part</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="plan">plan</span>. <span word="And">And</span> <span word="if">if</span> <span word="you">you</span>’<span word="re">re</span> <span word="like">like</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="lot">lot</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="Americans">Americans</span>, <span word="you">you</span> <span word="won">won</span>’<span word="t">t</span> <span word="go">go</span> <span word="very">very</span> <span word="much">much</span>.</p><p>你是不是和很多美国人一样，新年规划之一是要多锻炼，并在今年1月为此办了一张健身卡，但实际上却不会常去？</p><p><span word="Our">Our</span> <span word="overoptimism">overoptimism</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="much">much</span> <span word="we">we</span> <span word="will">will</span> <span word="work">work</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="has">has</span> <span word="been">been</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="subject">subject</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="academic">academic</span> <span word="research">research</span>. <span word="Nearly">Nearly</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="decade">decade</span> <span word="ago">ago</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="economists">economists</span> <span word="Stefano">Stefano</span> <span word="DellaVigna">DellaVigna</span> <span word="and">and</span> <span word="Ulrike">Ulrike</span> <span word="Malmendier">Malmendier</span> <span word="published">published</span> “<span word="Paying">Paying</span> <span word="Not">Not</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="Go">Go</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Gym">Gym</span>,” <span word="a">a</span> <span word="paper">paper</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="which">which</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="found">found</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="members">members</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="three">three</span> <span word="Boston">Boston</span> <span word="gyms">gyms</span> <span word="went">went</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="average">average</span> <span word="of">of</span> 4.3 <span word="times">times</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="month">month</span>. <span word="With">With</span> <span word="monthly">monthly</span> <span word="membership">membership</span> <span word="fees">fees</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="just">just</span> <span word="over">over</span> $70, <span word="that">that</span> <span word="meant">meant</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="average">average</span> <span word="of">of</span> $17 <span word="per">per</span> <span word="visit">visit</span> — <span word="well">well</span> <span word="above">above</span> <span word="the">the</span> $10 <span word="charge">charge</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="work">work</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="as">as</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="nonmember">nonmember</span>.</p><p>关于我们对自己会进行多少锻炼过分乐观的问题，一直是学术研究的对象。近10年前，经济学者斯特凡诺·德拉维尼亚(<span word="Stefano">Stefano</span> <span word="DellaVigna">DellaVigna</span>)和乌尔丽克·马尔门迪尔(<span word="Ulrike">Ulrike</span> <span word="Malmendier">Malmendier</span>)发表了一篇名为《付了钱却不去健身》(<span word="Paying">Paying</span> <span word="Not">Not</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="Go">Go</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="Gym">Gym</span>)的文章。他们在研究中发现，波士顿三家健身房的会员平均每月去4.3次。在月会员费略高于70美元（约合440元人民币）的情况下，这意味着每去一次平均花费17美元，远高于非会员锻炼一次10美元的收费。</p><p><span word="So">So</span> <span word="why">why</span> <span word="didn">didn</span>’<span word="t">t</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="just">just</span> <span word="pay">pay</span> <span word="per">per</span> <span word="visit">visit</span>? <span word="Because">Because</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="overestimated">overestimated</span> <span word="how">how</span> <span word="often">often</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="go">go</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="authors">authors</span> <span word="surveyed">surveyed</span> <span word="gym">gym</span> <span word="members">members</span> <span word="who">who</span>, <span word="on">on</span> <span word="average">average</span>, <span word="said">said</span> <span word="they">they</span> <span word="would">would</span> <span word="work">work</span> <span word="out">out</span> <span word="about">about</span> 9.5 <span word="times">times</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="month">month</span>, <span word="more">more</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="twice">twice</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="actual">actual</span> <span word="attendance">attendance</span> <span word="observed">observed</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="study">study</span>. <span word="People">People</span> <span word="remained">remained</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="denial">denial</span> <span word="about">about</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="gym">gym</span> <span word="attendance">attendance</span> <span word="even">even</span> <span word="after">after</span> <span word="they">they</span>’<span word="d">d</span> <span word="stopped">stopped</span> <span word="going">going</span> <span word="entirely">entirely</span>: <span word="On">On</span> <span word="average">average</span>, <span word="nonattending">nonattending</span> <span word="gym">gym</span> <span word="members">members</span> <span word="did">did</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="cancel">cancel</span> <span word="until">until</span> 2.3 <span word="months">months</span> <span word="after">after</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="last">last</span> <span word="visit">visit</span>, <span word="paying">paying</span> <span word="for">for</span> $187 <span word="worth">worth</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="completely">completely</span> <span word="unused">unused</span> <span word="gym">gym</span> <span word="access">access</span>.</p>
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