要有信心 2017年有理由乐观
<p><span word="In">In</span> 2017, <span word="global">global</span> <span word="output">output</span> <span word="per">per</span> <span word="head">head</span> <span word="grew">grew</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="close">close</span> <span word="to">to</span> 2 <span word="per">per</span> <span word="cent">cent</span>, <span word="at">at</span> <span word="purchasing">purchasing</span> <span word="power">power</span> <span word="parity">parity</span>. <span word="Thus">Thus</span>, <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="end">end</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="year">year</span>, <span word="human">human</span> <span word="beings">beings</span> <span word="were">were</span>, <span word="on">on</span> <span word="average">average</span>, <span word="better">better</span> <span word="off">off</span> <span word="than">than</span> <span word="ever">ever</span> <span word="before">before</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="their">their</span> <span word="long">long</span> <span word="history">history</span>. <span word="This">This</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="also">also</span> <span word="likely">likely</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="true">true</span> <span word="at">at</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="end">end</span> <span word="of">of</span> 2017. <span word="Optimism">Optimism</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="sensible">sensible</span>.</p><p>2017年，以购买力平价计算，全球人均产出增长了近2%。也就是说，到2017年底，平均而言人们的生活水平比人类漫长历史上的任何时期都要高。到了2017年底，情况恐怕也会如此。保持乐观是有道理的。</p><p><span word="Indeed">Indeed</span>, <span word="it">it</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="easy">easy</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="imagine">imagine</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="far">far</span> <span word="better">better</span> <span word="performance">performance</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2017 <span word="than">than</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2017. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="most">most</span> <span word="important">important</span> <span word="reason">reason</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="collapse">collapse</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="prices">prices</span>, <span word="particularly">particularly</span> <span word="since">since</span> <span word="these">these</span> <span word="higher">higher</span> <span word="prices">prices</span> <span word="are">are</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="large">large</span> <span word="part">part</span> <span word="due">due</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="enhanced">enhanced</span> <span word="supply">supply</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="International">International</span> <span word="Monetary">Monetary</span> <span word="Fund">Fund</span> <span word="argues">argues</span> <span word="that">that</span> <span word="lower">lower</span> <span word="oil">oil</span> <span word="prices">prices</span> <span word="could">could</span> <span word="raise">raise</span> <span word="world">world</span> <span word="output">output</span> <span word="by">by</span> <span word="between">between</span> 0.3 <span word="and">and</span> 0.7 <span word="per">per</span> <span word="cent">cent</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2017.</p><p>事实上，不难想象，全球在2017年的表现会远远好于2017年。最重要的原因是油价暴跌，特别是这一下跌在很大程度上还是供给增加导致的。国际货币基金组织(<span word="IMF">IMF</span>)认为，2017年，油价走低会令全球产出增长0.3%到0.7%。</p><p><span word="With">With</span> <span word="its">its</span> <span word="healing">healing</span> <span word="from">from</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="financial">financial</span> <span word="crisis">crisis</span> <span word="largely">largely</span> <span word="complete">complete</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="US">US</span> <span word="economy">economy</span> <span word="looks">looks</span> <span word="particularly">particularly</span> <span word="strong">strong</span>. <span word="The">The</span> <span word="Federal">Federal</span> <span word="Reserve">Reserve</span> <span word="may">may</span> <span word="raise">raise</span> <span word="rates">rates</span> <span word="a">a</span> <span word="little">little</span> <span word="in">in</span> 2017, <span word="but">but</span> <span word="not">not</span> <span word="much">much</span>. <span word="With">With</span> <span word="the">the</span> <span word="federal">federal</span> <span word="budget">budget</span> <span word="deficit">deficit</span> <span word="expected">expected</span> <span word="to">to</span> <span word="be">be</span> <span word="below">below</span> 3 <span word="per">per</span> <span word="cent">cent</span> <span word="of">of</span> <span word="gross">gross</span> <span word="domestic">domestic</span> <span word="product">product</span>, <span word="further">further</span> <span word="fiscal">fiscal</span> <span word="tightening">tightening</span> <span word="is">is</span> <span word="unneeded">unneeded</span>. <span word="Long">Long</span>-<span word="term">term</span> <span word="interest">interest</span> <span word="rates">rates</span> <span word="on">on</span> 10-<span word="year">year</span> <span word="treasuries">treasuries</span> <span word="remain">remain</span> <span word="close">close</span> <span word="to">to</span> 2.2 <span word="per">per</span> <span word="cent">cent</span>. <span word="In">In</span> <span word="all">all</span>, <span word="the">the</span> <span word="opportunity">opportunity</span> <span word="for">for</span> <span word="an">an</span> <span word="acceleration">acceleration</span> <span word="in">in</span> <span word="growth">growth</span> <span word="looks">looks</span> <span word="very">very</span> <span word="good">good</span>.</p>
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